This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Will Nifty go down from here ?

Today nifty did a high of 4877.. Huge Volumes seen.

Candle Stick Pattern
Doji with good volumes:
( a long white candle a doji signifies that buying pressure is diminished.
Long White Candle + Doji Candlestick example from StockCharts.comAfter an advance or long white candlestick, a doji signals that buying pressure may be diminishing and the uptrend could be nearing an end. Whereas a security can decline simply from a lack of buyers, continued buying pressure is required to sustain an uptrend. Therefore, a doji may be more significant after an uptrend or long white candlestick. Even after the doji forms, further downside is required for bearish confirmation. This may come as a gap down, long black candlestick, or decline below the long white candlestick's open. After a long white candlestick and doji, traders should be on the alert for a potential evening doji star.

Golden Ratio 61.8% retracement of fall from 5099-4531 comes to 4882( the channel top )  . Prices just fell short of it by 5 points .
From golden ratio will nifty now fall ?
Are we in 'C' down in 5 waves? Of which 1 and 2 done now 3 to start....After a huge white candle there comes a doji showing confusion . If we get a Good size black candle tomorow then we are probably going down  . Evening star doji.
if not then we are already in the long trade since 4796.

todays Close 4861

Hour 5 ema - 4861
HHema  4869
HLema   4848
 The very simple 5 hour HLC system , is presently in long . As prices close below the HLema the position will be closed and a sell will generate.

Also I am keeping an eye on 50 and 200 sma , If 50 crosses 200 then more upside and also if this happens there will be channel breakout that nifty is trading in   .
If not and 50 starts to fall from here then a fast fall in the making .


9Hour Rsi below the signal line and right at 80 mark.
Slow macd poised right at signal line , one has to see if it crosses it down or gives a fast rise .

Channels :

Prices trading at channel top(Blue) . Likely that prices see a correction from here ...
Red trendline is already broken upside , we will get to know if this a false breakout.

I feel prices will go down from here ...We will get to know that tomorow.

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