This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Friday 9 December 2011

Up Or DOwn ??

9th Dec
Update @ 2:30 pm
Gap almost filled . Island reversal gets Invalidated  .
ALso looks like a green candle  today if so , then evening star also gets invalidated.

The direction I was trying to trade was right today , that is long , but it took my stop loss at day low by just 2 points and jumped again close to 70 points and I ended up lossing .
My moving average band , Triggered a buy . ALso trendline is suggesting that the down move from  5099 to 4841 is over and now correction for this move is on.
23.6% is done today


Trade Initiated Buy at 4873 NS Sl= 4844 Day Low.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WLema @ 4864 . Nifty opened at 4870 may take support at WLema 4864  and bounce .
EW point of view ,  we may have completed B at 5099 and started C down in 5 waves . 1st wave over at 4843 today(9th Dec) and now 2nd wave to up in 3 waves as corrective wave may start .
A-     5385-4639
B-      4639-5099 (did the golden ratio and then fell from there)
C-      Ongoing in 5 waves
i-5099-4841=258
ii-4903(23.6%)   4941(38.2)   4971(50)   5001(61.8)  5045(78.6) Probabilties exists.
       49012 Done .


Bearish scenario
Candle Pattern
Nifty opened Gap down at 4870 , not filling the last gap at 4866-4918 , If we do not fill this Gap today then it creates and Island reversal , which is very Bearish . If Gap gets filled  today then gets invalidated.
Also yesterday EOD candle made an evening star  which is also bearish . Follow up is reqd. as another red candle today.
Volumes
Eod 8th Dec Volumes below average .
Indicators ( Indicating bearishness)
Stochastic – Sell in daily TF  ;
Macd yet to trigger a sell in daily time frame , but with todays gap down it has triggered a sell .
RSI – turned down from 80 mark .
Today 's ORB – (4872-4843) As I write this Orb broken to up so possibilities that we are in C.ii to up
so the candle pattern which is suggesting movement down ....needs follow up ...

Let us see.