This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Monday 30 January 2012

Hanging Man gets confirmed with an Evening star on the charts !


Evening Star pattern is :
A bearish candlestick pattern consisting of three candles.
1.The first bar is a large white candlestick located within an uptrend.
2.The middle bar is a small-bodied candle (red or white) that closes above the first white bar.
3.The last bar is a large red candle that opens below the middle candle and closes near the centre of the first bar's body.
Today's Candle is encompassing the whole candle of first day in the pattern .This shows a strong bearish possibilities .
The day closed at 5087 was below the 5 Day ema  at 5111 ...so the

Day Trend turns down today.
Hour Trend has been down since 10:00 close today morning.

Indicators :
All the indicators showing weakness ... Hour fast macd turned below zero during the day and slow macd about to cross the zero line , that may happen tomorrow .

Moving Averages :

Prices closed below the 50 sma at 5092 .
The MAs are aligned in the bearish way.
Closed above Day low ema at 5080 ...at 10:00 close tomorrow if it is below 5080 then a shorting opportunity again .

Sitting Tight most difficult thing to do

I should have carried the position , and not closed it according to rules .
I was in a trade with zero risk ..as developing hour high ema was coming to 5143 and I took a position at 5154 so even if prices closed above hour high ( as the rule says to close the short position , as and when prices close above hour high ema ) I would have made 10 points or minimum loss  .
Hanging Man was also confirmed by todays action and also an Evening Star in the making . Indicating a down movement further for sure .

30th Jan 2012

The trade should be still on according to the rules , that a close above Hour  high ema  should be the stop loss ....But as I saw 50 points and saw it reduce to 40 point s , I booked out ...after a long time some gain I saw :)
I should have sit tight and should not have closed the position . but I did
------------------------------------

Today at 10:00 close I shorted 1 lot of mininifty ...
Based on
1) Prices closed(5150) well below the Hour low ema at 5170 .
2) Gap down supporting the hanging man formed on friday.
--will update here as the day moves on

Saturday 28 January 2012

Divergence

There are 4 kinds of Divergences

Regular Divergence:

  • Higher highs in price and lower highs in the oscillator which indicate a trend reversal from up to down.

  • Lower lows in price and higher lows in the oscillator which indicate a trend reversal from down to up.

Hidden Divergence:

  • Lower highs in price and higher highs in the oscillator which indicate a confirmation of the price trend which is down.

  • Higher lows in price and lower lows in the oscillator which indicate a confirmation of the price trend which is up.

Divergence is a comparison of price to technical indicators. It can also be a comparison to another symbol or spread between two symbols. Divergence occurs when what you are comparing is moving in opposite directions. Divergence can signal an up coming change in trend, a change of trend in progress or that a trend should continue. A divergence signal suggests watching for a trading opportunity in the direction of the signal. Divergences may continue over many swing highs/lows so price action should confirm your trade. This can be done in many ways, some of which are: price making a higher high/low or lower high/low or price testing the last swing high/low, price trading past high or low of previous bar, many of which will correspond with the MACD histogram crossing zero.

How does a Price action confirms -ve Divergence??

Hanging Man after a rally

So evening star is out of question ...as we gapped up .
But on the charts there is a Hanging man formed after a prolonged rally which started with a hammer formed at 4588 . This hanging man is also formed at 200 sma at 5212.

Here is the day chart



Wednesday 25 January 2012

Evening Star in the making?

We had a big white candle yesterday and today we had gap up with a spinning top candle . Now If we get a Black candle on friday as shown then this will happen after a good Rally , indicating a reversal .
I am expecting a reversal , so may be I am seeing thing s ...On friday lets see what happens , we are also at a very strong resistance of 5170 ,



Today's candle looks like


Tuesday 24 January 2012

Lvls to watch on 25th Jan

Price zones / levels that need to be closely watched ...

Monthly trend is Down .
Weekly trend is Up .
Daily Trend Up
Hourly Trend UP.

Hour close Ema @ 5119. As long as prices close above this hour trend will remain up .

Indicators suggest OB for some time now . Also -ve divergence all over the hour charts ...correction will come soon I feel but when ?

For now weakness if prices close below Hour close Ema with some volumes that is 5119.
The Hour low Ema @ 5104 .
Day TF says

Day close Ema @ 5044 , DHema @ 5058 and DLema @ 4995.
Now if we keep a filter of 15 points to HLema in Hour TF then it comes to 5089.
Monthly Pivot 4792
Week Pivot 4980
Day Pivot 5106.
Shorting opportunity once prices close below 5089.
Some Charts :

Prices are trading at the channel resistance ...


Monday 23 January 2012

23rd Jan 2012

Here are some numbers one should keep a watch on ...

Hour Time Frame

5053  HHema
5041  HCema
5018  HLema .

Developing Day Time Frame lvls

HHema   4995
DCema   4980
DLema   4941


Friday 20 January 2012

Prices closing below the HHema

For past 2 hours prices are closing below the hHema and Hour close ema
.I feel that we are finally in the 4th wave down(bullish) Or the 3rd wave down (bearish).

20 Jan Observation

Significant -ev divergence in hour charts ...Prices to fall but when ?



My understanding says ,
Presently wait for prices to close below first the Orange Trendline and then the Pink trendline for indication that 'c' is over in 5 waves . If and when prices close below the Dema then  Hhema , weekness will be there ..Untill then wait and watch.

Tuesday 17 January 2012

Update on Longs

SL for the buy done at 4942 is 4964 presently developing HHema. This is to save the capital .

17th Jan Observation .

Prices resisting  at 4950-4960 lvls.
Momemtum seems to be missing .
We are closing above HHema since 10:00 today morning though .

A good -ve divergence is seen in 14RSI hourly charts.

35D stochstic in 'OB" region and Prices trading at channel top

Prices should fall anytime now , I think.
EW perspective we have done the 5th also ...
I am presently Long since 10:00 today morning as prices closed above HHema and still maintaing that ..today's open = Low .
but still feel prices will drop soon .

Monday 16 January 2012

16th Jan .

Did not get a chance to enter today .....with the very simple system of Moving Average bands .

Lets see what happens tomorow .

==============================================================
A very simple plan for today is ,
As prices close below the Hour low ema at 4848 ...I will short , with SL as close above hour high ema .

I feel weekness in the prices ...Also 5 waves were done at 4899 ..I think 2nd wave of 5 waves down was over and now we are in 3rd wave down .

Thursday 12 January 2012

12 Jan : 12:00 Close .

At 12 close :

Hour Closing at 12 @ 4812 and HLema @ 4824 .
So a sell generated . With SL = Close above HHema 4855.

4838 is the high made in the previous hour . A Close above it ..I will be cautious.

Fast Macd has crossed below the zero line for now ..Ss cut the 80 mark downwards.

Wednesday 11 January 2012

Will Nifty go down from here ?


Today nifty did a high of 4877.. Huge Volumes seen.

Candle Stick Pattern
Doji with good volumes:
(Stockcharts.com)After a long white candle a doji signifies that buying pressure is diminished.
Long White Candle + Doji Candlestick example from StockCharts.comAfter an advance or long white candlestick, a doji signals that buying pressure may be diminishing and the uptrend could be nearing an end. Whereas a security can decline simply from a lack of buyers, continued buying pressure is required to sustain an uptrend. Therefore, a doji may be more significant after an uptrend or long white candlestick. Even after the doji forms, further downside is required for bearish confirmation. This may come as a gap down, long black candlestick, or decline below the long white candlestick's open. After a long white candlestick and doji, traders should be on the alert for a potential evening doji star.





Golden Ratio 61.8% retracement of fall from 5099-4531 comes to 4882( the channel top )  . Prices just fell short of it by 5 points .
From golden ratio will nifty now fall ?
Are we in 'C' down in 5 waves? Of which 1 and 2 done now 3 to start....After a huge white candle there comes a doji showing confusion . If we get a Good size black candle tomorow then we are probably going down  . Evening star doji.
if not then we are already in the long trade since 4796.

MAs
todays Close 4861

Hour 5 ema - 4861
HHema  4869
HLema   4848
 The very simple 5 hour HLC system , is presently in long . As prices close below the HLema the position will be closed and a sell will generate.


Also I am keeping an eye on 50 and 200 sma , If 50 crosses 200 then more upside and also if this happens there will be channel breakout that nifty is trading in   .
If not and 50 starts to fall from here then a fast fall in the making .

Indicators:

9Hour Rsi below the signal line and right at 80 mark.
Slow macd poised right at signal line , one has to see if it crosses it down or gives a fast rise .



Channels :

Prices trading at channel top(Blue) . Likely that prices see a correction from here ...
Red trendline is already broken upside , we will get to know if this a false breakout.

I feel prices will go down from here ...We will get to know that tomorow.

11Jan 10:00 Close

Update at 12:00
HLema 4846
HHema 4862
Trailing sL=close below 4846
Fast Fall set up emerging ...with 20 and 200 sma keep an eye on it/

----------------------------------------------------------
Update at 11:00
HLema 4834
HHema 4854
Trailing sL=close below 4834.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The trade taken yesterday at 4798 , is still on . Presently Hour 5 low ema at 4827 . So till prices close below this and then subsequent lvl at 11:00 close ,the trade is on . HH ema at 4847 , in the first hour prices took support here.

80+ points so far in this trade.

Hour rsi is OB ...
I am keeping a watch on 20 and 200 sma , if they cross then bullish , If 20 starts to fall then a fast fall.

Tuesday 10 January 2012

10Jan 10:00 Close

Prices closed at 4798 .

Lets see the important lvls .
Hour High ema 4767
Day 5 Ema 4758
D high Ema 4779

The very simple system which says to buy as prices close above hour high ema generates a buy at 10 :00 close now.
So buy at 4798 SL= day low for now then it moves to close below hour low ema .

Monday 9 January 2012

9 th Jan . 10:00 close

AT 10:00 close at 4708 , it seems , lot of weekness .

Prices trading below Week Pivot (4712), Day Pivot(4745).
Hour 5 ema (4726) . Hour Low ema at 4709 .

Prices have closed below all important nos.
4692 is the day low ema , where it seems to have taken support at 10 close .
A "SELL" if 4692 is broken .

Friday 6 January 2012

EOD 6th Jan

Stop loss for all shorts would have triggered today ..mine as well
In no trade right now ...
Time Frame
  1. Hour time frame trend is up
  2. Day time frame trend is up .
  3. Week time frame , trend turned up today with close(4754) above week 5 ema (4748).
Channel :

There is a channel resistance at 4830-4840 zone.

Prices

Prices did close above Hour high ema but just by one point . Monday 10:00 close will give more clear direction if at all it is up...
If it closes down then I will wait on sidelines for a good set up to emerge.
4769 is the day high ema ..if prices close above this lvl and maintained for monday then "buy' will generate for me.


6th Jan 10:00 hour Close

AT 10:00 Close ..it looks like going down looking at High and low emas with respect to close prices ...in hour and day time frame.

Yesterday's Sell generated at 4740( as prices closed below Hour low ema) is also in profit .


Closed below 4741 (5 close hour ema)
Closed below 4722 ( 5 Close Day ema)

Thursday 5 January 2012

EOD 5th Jan.2012

Not getting much time to devote here...as my understanding says tomorow may be planned in this way ...
Moving Averages :

Today for last 3 trading hours , upsides momentum got weak. The Close at 4750 was above Hour Low ema(4744) and Below HHema ( 4767).Similarly it was above DLema and below DHema...bringing sell on rises in picture.
12 and 26 mas almost at the same price lets see if 12 rises or drops from here ?
Hour close 5 ema 4755
Day clsoe 5 ema 4726
Week 5 close ema 4746
So a close above 4755 will keep the trend as up for all the three time frames .With a close at 4750 only the hour trend is down whereas day and week trend is up.

20MA Channel

At 3 pm close today this gave a "Sell" . But the very next hr the signal line seems to move up again .
now If we have prices closing below the Hour low ema tomorow in the first hour , I can "sell".
at the close price . Or else if this signal crosses and closes above Hour high ema then it will be ver bullish , as we see the signal line reversed inside the channel .

Divergence :
Clear -ve divergence present in the hour 9 rsi chart.

Both fast and slow macd are below the signal line , Fast is about to cross the zero line and slow has to travel some more distance . If this crosses the zero line to down then we are back in the monthly trend which is down if it reverses from near this zero line then further upsides .
All these only in hour TF , Day TF is intact showing more upsides.
Fast Fall :

If the 20 ma now falls ( Red) wrt to purple (200) Fast fall will come ...keep a watch on 20 wrt 200.
5 has started to fall already.

Channel:
Prices trading at lower trendline of hour chart .
Prices
If 4700 is broken then more weakness will come in prices .

All in all its a SELL
If the first hour clsoe is below the "then" hour low ema along with channel break to down  along with macd crossing the zero line to down along with prices closing below 5 ema of respective TF .

Look for prices to up , with Opening above pivot Along with maintaining the day low .

Jan 05 Obsevation

From 12:00 o'clock close the prices are closing above 5 Close ema , but have closed below 5 Hour Hema.
4770-4780 acting as stiff resistance .
50 100 and 200 sma s are not changing fo past 2-3 hours just the 5 and 20 sma are going down.

Is there a fall coming to support zone ?

Tuesday 3 January 2012

Gap up Opening

With todays gap up opening , the channel is broken upside in which nifty was trading for last few days .

We did a buy at 4630 lvls yesterday , we will carry this position till the prices close below the Hour low ema or day low ema ...
At 11:30 the Hour low ema is 4679 so that is the stop loss for now the long position taken yesterday .
which gives at least 50 points .

Monday 2 January 2012

EOD Jan 02 2012

Time Frame :
 Looking at hourly moving averages , Nifty closed above HHema at 4637 .Making hourly trend to reverse presently . One has keep a watch if this spreads to day frame.
Nifty did close above DLema (4629) If it closes above day 5 ema (4659) , ST reversal will be confirmed and will gain momentum if closes above DHema (4700) .
Nifty gave a aggresive buy signal today at 4630 lvls by closing above Hour 5 ema ( 4624) and then above Hour high ema ( 4633).To be safe , it has to close above day 5 ema for a buy.

50 hour sma has crossed 100 hr sma
Sir says
"In downtrend it is close above DLema suggesting a correction , and normally it extends 10-20 points above DHema."
Fib Retracements for the fall from 4801 to 4588 are
4638 23.6%
4669  .38%
4695  .50%
4720 .618%
4745  .736 .

Indicators :
On hourly charts stochastic is OS , Also in daily charts ss is OS. look for + ve divergence in hourly charts , if present then good time to go long.

Slow macd has just triggered signal line near 0 .
fast macd about to cross the zero line to up , ( it may turn down as well , if it does then it will be zero line reversal bearish ) other wise zero line crossover  bullish.

Channels:

Prices closed at the upper trendline of the channel nifty is trading in .watch out for a breakout with volumes .


I feel like a " buy " generated today at the close of the hour around4630 lvls .
Ideal SL= 4588 and Target 4700-4720 .
and then depending upon the momentum that time we can decide further.