This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Monday 17 December 2012

EOD 17/12/12

 
Do we have a Rounding top formation with TL at 5839 break of which might target 5700 lvls?
 

Fast Rise or Fast fall is coming ...as averages will give the direction

5 sma 5860
20 @ 5866
100 @ 5862

 

Thursday 13 December 2012

EOD 13th Dec 2012

Trend is down with momentum with a close below DLema ( 5858)
 
 
Hour Chart
 
 
 100 SMA @ 5828

Wednesday 12 December 2012

EOD 12.12.2012

 
We closed < 5 Dema , making the day trend down , Sell signal on hour charts as well .
DLema at 5867 with a break of this and close below, sell gets confirmed. 
 
 

 
 Sell signal on day charts issued with the divergence  .


EW wise I feel we are still in corrective to fall (5965-5865) , IF 5865 breaks that wud be another confirmation of "sell" generated today.

Tuesday 11 December 2012

EOD 11th Dec 2012


My HW for the day , read once more about characteristics of impluse waves with guidelines make notes .

Day trend intact with a close > 5DEma .

Clear 5 waves from the top today at 5965 to 5865 , so for tomorow I am keeping the retracements of this down move handy .



 From   To   Fall/ Rise  0.236%        0.38                 0.50 0.618% 0.736% 0.80%
5965 5865       100    5,889    5,903             5,915    5,927      5,939      5,945


Price > 5945 would mean we are in 5th wave
If we start to retrace from the zone 5927-5945 then might be in C.4 ,
and we will not go below 5348 which is top of C.1

-ve divergence played out well today , a 100 point move.

Monday 10 December 2012

EOD 10.12.2012

 
On hour TF 5 and 20 mas are at the same point ,fast rise or Fast fall ?

Hour Divergence
 Day Divergence
 
 
 

Friday 7 December 2012

Wednesday 5 December 2012

EOD 5th Dec 2012


Back after a long vacation .


EW wise
Wave C from 4770 In 5 waves ..
 
 
And now the last wave 5 from 5548 in 5 waves ...

As I see the hour charts -ve divergence is quite prominently seen between the points 5899 (iii) and top made today at 5918 (v)indicating the 4th wave is on after which final 5th might unfold.

Also to keep in mind is this -ve divergence is seen in hour charts  when indicators are OB in day charts..
 

If we see -ve divergence is developing in day chart as well .It holds or negates , only time will tell giving us clues on its way.
 
 
 
I could only do this much HW .
 

Thursday 11 October 2012

EOD 11th OCt

Closed at 5708
 

 

 Clearly hour trend turns up with momentum and it issued a buy at 5696 at 2:00 , and at 3 close 5-10 +ve crossover also seen .

Channel:
There was a channel breakout as well , This was earlier in the day than the above buy signal .




Moving Average:

5Dema at 5697 , so day trend up , now to sustain this up move we need to cross 5627 ( DHema ) and close above it .
We took support at Wema at 5633 .
On day chart , 5 and 10 ema are poised for a Fast rise ,

Fibonacci Retracements:


FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
 From   To   Fall/ Rise  0.236%        0.38                 0.50 0.618% 0.736% 0.80%
5815 5637       178    5,679    5,705             5,726    5,747      5,768      5,779
5637 5720        (83)    5,700    5,688             5,679    5,669      5,659      5,654
we have done 38% today and close to 50%  , Anything more than 80% at 5779 would mean more upsides .

and Falling below 5654 would mean more downside.

Chart pattern :

It was a Falling wedge , which was forming . This pattern is considered bullish and can be used for indication of a bottom formation .

 

Wednesday 10 October 2012

EOD 10th Oct 2012

Close ( 5652) Well below the DEma ( 5692) and below the DLema ( 5674). Trend is down with momentum .
We have a sell on day TF now with Sell on hour TF .



Is that a Head and a shoulder pattern ? We will know tomorrow for sure .

+ve divergence developing on hour TF and we have closed at support lvl of 5650 .
Support with +ve divergence may give a upmove ..

Week trend is up , If we get a buy in hour TF now , with Weak trend up , it could be valid buy if it triggers in Day TF also following the hour TF .

HLema at 5655
Dlema at 5674.

Hour ema s , 20 and 100 are right at 5690 , tomorrow will tell if there is -ve cross Or a fast rise ...

 

Tuesday 9 October 2012

EOD 9th Oct. Indecision !!

EW on hour TF .Looks like in a falt correction 3 3 5 because we see 3 waves down from 5815 high  , from 5815 off which "a" done at 5666 now "b" is on . This count gets invalidated if we break 5666.
 Candl
 

 On hour TF we have closed right at 5Hema  (5705), below HHema (5714)and above HLema(5695) . Same in Day TF
Closing is below 5 Dema (5712) , trend is down  but as the closing is above DLema(5687) , the downward momentum is not present.

I think any move beyond 5715 and closing above it may indicate that we are in B.c of Flat to lvls close to 5815 ...
and Breaking of yesterday's low at 5666 , would indicate that more lows .


Candle stick pattern :
We may call this a Spinning top which along with yesterday's candle makes a " Bearish Hamrami"
Spinning top indicates indecision .

 

Monday 8 October 2012

EOD 8th Oct

So finally the -ve divergence is confirmed with prices going down below 5 Dema and closing also confirming the loss of  momentum and bearish engulfing also confirmed.

Down move from 5815 is a 3 wave structure till now , 
from 5815
a 5815-5706=109
b 5706-5752=46( 42.2%)
c* going on T1=.618(a)=67 pts =5684 ( We have already done this today ) T1=a=5643 If we go beyond 1.618 % of a downside then we will have to count 5 waves from 5815 down .

We presently have sell on day TF as  well along with hour TF .
 

Friday 5 October 2012

EOD 5th Oct 2012

Let me start with 9 RSI day chart .. where I see the -ve divergence has formed well and showed its effects today .
 
Macd Histogram divergence
 
 

But again we have closed at 5747,  above 5 day ema at 5735 .
Trend still intact , though momentum is not there now , with a close below day high ema .

Safe shorts would be only below a close of 5 dema .


Candle pattern wise we have a Bearish Engulfing today , which is there after a good uptrend along with weakening of momentum . Candle formed today engulfs the shadow also ,


Confirmation in the form of further weakness needed on Monday . On day charts SS has not crossed the trigger line yet , with a cross of trigger line , shorts would be safer.

Probably it may come with a close below 5 day ema .


Retracements for todays fall from 5810 to 5706 are

 From   To   Fall/ Rise  0.236%        0.38                 0.50 0.618% 0.736% 0.80%
5810 5706       104    5,731    5,746             5,758    5,770      5,783      5,789

Prices going above 80% would mean strength ...



we have done close to 50 % today at 5758.

All in all  , A bearish engulfing + losing momentum on Day TF + -ve divergnece persisting on day charts .
 

Thursday 4 October 2012

EOD 4th Oct 2012

-ve divergence persisting in Hour TF and still developing in day TF as follows

 
Day TA is OB and -ve divergence presently , last RSI high at 97.4 , if with prices making HH RSI goes above 97.4 then -ve divergence vanishes . If not now is no time for shorts one has to wait it out . I am not available tomorow to trade .If it comes then I will miss it .

5 Day ema at 5729 , weakness only below this . Other #s to watch
Today's low at 5751.55 and Day high ema at 5747.

Presently prices showing no weakness.
EW

Accordingly we still have (iv) (v) to do within iii , where iii will be over and then iv and v to complete the 5th wave . That would complete the 5 waves and then correction . IFF during all this process the -ve divergence persists with Day TA , OB we will get a golden opportunity to short for good gains . As the correction will be for the move from 5216 to the new high of 'C'.


 

Divergence

Divergence trades , no wonder give good gains ...but may take long to develop . Live example is what we are seeing now on charts .
Posting a hour chart look for over a week now this -ve divergence is persisting ...


And now look at this Day chart with 9 Rsi ...


We see how a divergence is taking time to form in day charts ...Last reading on RSI was 97.4 , prices have already made a higher high , its time to watch if RSI also makes a higher high or it turns before that . If it does that then this  divergence will get confirmed in day charts .

Piyush Sharda ji at Just nifty explains it as

" divergence are decrease in momentum. decrease in speed if u talk in parlance of a car. decrease in speed doesnt mean it will reverse. it can stop and go back in same direction again and make one more divergence.if a week -ve divergence has to develop just think how many hour divergence has to fail for that. if month divergence develops in 2003-08 market many day and week divergence will fail "


 

Wednesday 3 October 2012

4th Oct 2012

-ve divergence persisting in the hour charts ..

 
Prices making  higher tops and macd is making lower highs as seen in the charts . -ve divergence persisting since  5650 as marked in the charts .But prices are maintaing the close near the highs and above Day Ema and DHEma ..I have already lost  a few points trying to trade this divergence  ...Now no shorting till we get a close below DEma presently at 5699.
21 Hr Ema at 5714.
34 Hr Ema at 5700.
Hour low ema I feel is susptible to whipsaw , so putting my trust with 21 / 34 hr ema and Day Ema .
Below 5700 weakness and confirmation of -ve divergence . One more Confirmation could be Fast Macd crossing zero line on Hour TF .

Monday 1 October 2012

3/10/2012

Closed at 5719.

At  HHema ( 5719)

Hour trend up  .

Above Dhema ( 5705) ,  Day trend up with momentum .

Now we have First Hour low ema at 5707 and Day high ema at 5705 . SO only a close below these lvls would bring weakness in price.

-ve Divergence in hour charts still persisting.

All I understand is 5735 is resistance presently .
and 5700-5710 support.

5Dema being at 5683.

Friday 28 September 2012

1/10/2012

Price wise , unless we close first below 5699 ( HLema ) , no momentum in hour trend which is down presently .

Day trend is up with momentum with a close above 5696( DHema ).

Week Trend stays up and so is the month .

Shorts only when , we close below the hour low ema with a 5-10 -ve crossover . Hour charts showing -ve divergence with peaks 5720 and 5735.
confirmation comes with a close below 5565 is Day ema , weakness only below this .

EW wise , I feel we have done 5 waves at 5720 and are in an irregular correction presently , with 'b' shooting over 5 today at 5735. We will see a 'c' wave if we are in irregular flat from 5720 , which should take us below 5638 . Indication of this possibility will come , with weakness in price as stated above.

Divergence : Hour charts showing -ve divergence with peaks 5720 and 5735.

Indicators :

macd ( 34 5 5) on hour TF has given a sell today . Candle pattern wise , there  is a stooting star today .

Indicators , EW , Candle pattern , developing -ve divergence on hour charts.showing bearish possibility  , But the prices are firm and are not showing any weakness in Day TF , Though they are down in hour TF , but are closing above Hour low ema . The min requirement is to close below the HLema which is presently at 5699.

Tuesday 25 September 2012

26/9/2012

Day chart has a Doji today , Whole day it was range bound , I did short the market today as prices closed below Hour Low ema , at 12 noon . But then they decided to take support at 5655-5650 zone and bounced . SL was channel top which was first around 5695 and which slowly moved down , Finally there was Dip to 5666 during the last hour and I closed my position there with a loss of 7 points , Phew !!

Did not carry any positions as a corrective is going on ..and moreover I am not available tommorow .

What do the charts say to Me , here it is ...
We  are in corrective move presently ,
Now Q is whether we are correcting the move from

5216 to 5720 ( 5 waves over at 5720) or move from 5333 to 5720 ( assuming only 3 waves done at 5720 and one more top above 5720 as 5th wave )  ...lets look at the Fib retracements ...

If it is correction for 5216 to 5720 then this present correction should me more than what 2 and 4 have done


So more than 113 comes to below 5607 and the path can take form of a Flat , zz or a triangle.
Fib ret can be seen in the table below .


 From   To   Fall/ Rise  0.236%        0.38                 0.50 0.618% 0.736% 0.80%
5537 5720      (183)    5,677    5,650             5,629    5,607      5,585      5,574
5333 5720      (387)    5,629    5,573             5,527    5,481      5,435      5,410
              -             -             -                     -             -             -             -  
5216 5720      (504)    5,601    5,528             5,468    5,408      5,349      5,317


 And as per option 2 if only 3 waves are done at 5720 then we are correcting the 3rd wave which started form 5333.Again since this is correcting the whole move from 5333 , then the correction should be more than subwave ii and iv which again comes to below 5607.


 
Price wise we have closed above 5 Dema at 5637 and Also above 5 D hema at 5666 , so day trend is up with momentum .
Hour trend is facing correction  , but have closed above Hlema at 5667 . So hour trend down without momentum .
 Price wise no weakness .
BUT
-ve divergence still there in hour charts , with macd ( 34 5 5) in sell mode . This sell will negate if this macd shows a +ve crossover.
5 sma and 20 sma are poised interestingly ,  it may give a Fast rise / Fast fall .


Have a nice day !
 

Monday 24 September 2012

25th Sep 2012

We closed at 5669.6

Hour trend down with a close below hour 5 ema ( 5677) , hour low ema at 5669 , a close below this would bring down momentum in hour TF  .

Day high ema at 5648 5 day ema far below at 5618

-ve divergence prominent on hour charts ...with a sell triggered today with a cross over of macd ( 34 5 5). But again , Day high ema is at 5648 unless we close atleast below that ,this is just a correction IMHO.



Still vth of 5th pending . lets see if that comes next trading session , or more weakness

Friday 21 September 2012

Ganpati Bappa Morya!




Posted by Picasa

EOD 21 sep

Hour trend is up  with momentum .

I see a -ve divergence in hour charts as well .


When we see the 5th wave fractals From low of 5534, one last leg ( 5th of 5th ) seems to be remaining . Did short during the day , but then closed the position with 20 points loss today itself . Wanted to carry the position , looking at
 channel top , Hour TA being OB as well as Day TA,   -ve divergence and a pin bar candle on hour charts at 1 but did not have courage to carry the position .Will wait for Monday open , If we go higher than 5720 , with -ve divergence in 5 mins charts then will short again , while mainting the divergence in hour charts  .



 

Monday 17 September 2012

Tata Motors



17th Sep , Shooting star after an uptrend with good vols , so next day a down candle confirms the
pattern .Then a down move .

Also a DT at 283 . Prices right at 61.8 %  .

My Take : If we get a down candle 18th Sep , then a good opportunity to short.
 

18/9/2012

There is a -ve divergence seen in day charts as below , with the tops at 5631 and 5650


During the day , hour Macd ( 34 5 5) gave a sell signal as seen in the chart below .
 

We have closed below HHema , so Hour charts are showing weakness along with a sell that Macd ( 34 5 5)  gave .
Day Trend still up , All these gap ups have made the prices come far away from Day ema at 5507 .

On Auspicious occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi I will be little busy with other things so updates will not be regular in coming days .
 

Friday 14 September 2012

EW from 6339

From high of 6339
 
 
 
From the high of 6339 we did WXY at 4531
 
 From 4531 ,
 First we have to see this wave from 4531 as a 3 or 5 wave ....It does not look like a 5 wave , but its impulsive nature makes me believe that it is a 5 wave .
 so here is the chart
 
 

Thursday 13 September 2012

14/9/2012

First thing that comes to my mind is ,

Did we do a double top today at 5448 ?

Closed below HHema , with Hour TA in OB zone . indicates a pause for sure , will it get converted into correction ?? We will know if we get a close below 5Ema on hour TF ( 5433) and then a close below HLema ( 5426) .

Hour charts are showing weakness , MACD ( 34 5 5) has triggered a sell . also slow macd and fast macd presently below the trigger line .
But on hour charts SS is still above 80 mark . This has to come down that lvl if any downmove

50 MA has given a bullish cross on hour charts with 100 and 200 MA .

On day charts we have a Doji right on the blue TL , indicating indicision ...But weakness on day charts only with a close below 5401 DHema .IF we close above this blue TL then next resistance would be the Red TL and also the possibility of being in 'e'.


 
Day charts are developing a divergence as seen below,
 
 
 
 
All in all , Hour charts showing weakness but no weakness in day charts . Giving importance to higher TF untill we close below Hour low ema or Day high ema , we are still going UP.
 
Important announcements tonight , I am biased towards a bearish view. 
 

 

Wednesday 12 September 2012

13/9/2012

-ve divergence is  invalidated in the hour charts Macd (  34 5  5 ).
14 rsi and fast macd still showing the divergence .


Clear strength seen in hour charts , day charts , week charts and month charts. .

Trending Up with momentum in all TFs
  .
5448 last top , and 5430-5450  major resistance ahead , lets see how prices behave around that level .

Today's closing also bullish , closed almost at day high 5431.

When indicators are at extreme reading ,then watch out for ORB ,it is a good guide .Hour TA is OB ,I will keep a watch on ORB, day TA started to form a -ve divergence. Keeping a watch on Macd(34 5 5) , divergence and orb

Also 5458 is 80% of fall from 5630 to 4770 .
 

Tuesday 11 September 2012

12/9/2012

Sir says ,

During an uptrend , gap downs are good points to enter longs , this is not a rule but a guideline and how true it held today ,
ORB helps in this method .
We are trending up and there was gap down till close ema or low ema  , which could have used to enter long .
ORB broke upside , and that is a good confirmation for the trade to be taken at 5348.

I was also looking at 123 pattern , and it did give a long signal at 5354 around 11:20 in the morning  , which was good too .
 
 
My eyes are seeing a -ve divergence developing in hour charts , One has to watch of any negation  ...
 
 
On Day charts we have a nice bullish candle today.so -ve divergence on hour charts may very well be nagated next trading session.
Slow macd on day charts has turned up just above zero , and has crossed the signal line , giving indications of more upside .
anything above 5402 is More Strength as 5402 is 80% of Last fall from 5448-5216
 
All in all Presently we are Trending up in all TFs we have closed above high emas in all TFs  .


BUT , a correction is on cards EW indicates so am keeping the fibb retracemnts of move 5216-5393 handy incase it comes.
Cheers !