This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Friday 16 December 2011

MA Channel Setting

As I was backtesting I see lots of whipsaws and small profits when I plot 5 high and 5 low channel . Plotting 20 High and 20 Low ema/sma with 5 period as the signal line lets you stay  in the trade for longer time and wipsaws are less though there are wipsaw there as well . One can fine tune it with plotting 10 period MA as well on the same chart and Part booking at 5 and 10 MA crossover.I will try to follow this for some time.Have a look

What a Fall!!

OMG !! what a fall

So covering at 4782 was really good .
Look at the channels now.

Going short below
 first below hour low ema and then below day low ema would have been great , but I did not do that .
Currently nifty has broken the Low at 4639 and touched 4628 today , very bearish sceen as seen by me .

On the Higher counts I am counting as
ABC zigzag from 5400
    A- 5400-4639 =761
    B- 4639-5099 = 460
    C is on (Down) in 5 waves , Expectation = A = 761 which comes to 4338 !!!!!!
           1   5099-4728 =371
           2   was a irregular flat , whose wave c could not do the expected that is above wave b so effects could be very implusive wave 3 ...I guess which we saw today.
      so 2 = 90
             a-4728-4839
             b-4839-4673
             c-4673-4818 ( fell short of expectation which was above 4839 atleast)
Now 3 going on in 5 waves min target = 1 = 371 which comes to 4447
 we touched 4628 today 16th dec.
I think i is done of this 3 as
           i- 4818-4628=190  
          ii-4628-4671* is going on
         Retracement lvls for this corrective wave can be
         23.6%(4673) Almost done today
         38.2%(4701)
         50%(4723)
         61.8%(4745)Golden ratio
         78.6%(4777)
Lets see what Monday brings.

Divergence 
A good +ve divergence is also seen in 9 rsi hour chart .
I can see fast fall as well here with 7 and 34 Sma .

Intraday update1

update at 1:00
5 ema did not cross 10 ema . Now that nifty bounced back Lets see if exiting the trade was a good move , or paitiently waiting for 5 ema to cross 10 would have giving higher gains .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
at 12:30
My obervation is if I wait for 5 ema to cross below the 10 ema for exit I am lossing a few points , compared to if I exit on a close below 5 ema . ( 5 min or 15 min candle)
As we entered this position at 4745 looking at the Hour MA channel , exit looking at Min candle can be more appropriate.
This is what I think at present . More observation is reqd to say it with more confidence.

So saying that , currently Trailing SL of 4886 hits as Nifty spot goes below it .
I could have exited in various ways lets see which gives max gains.
  1. The 5 min candle at 11:55 did close (4782) below the 5 ema then @ 4786 ...so close position at 4782 .
  2. The 15 min candle at 12:00 did close (4779) below the 5 ema 4786 ...so close position at 4779.
  3. Wait for 5 ema to cross below 10 ema.
  4. As the trigger line (yellow ) comes back in the channel below 5 hour high ema . accordingly close position at 4782 .
Lets see which one is most beneficial .

Presently closed position at 4782 .


Date PositionSizeEntrySlPart/BookingExitP/L
15-Dec-11Buy10047454700
16-Dec-1150479550
50
4782
37
+87


Update on yesterdays Long.

Carrying the trade table ahead

Date PositionSizeEntrySlPart/BookingExitP/L
15-Dec-11Buy10047454700
16-Dec-1150479550

I will carry the the 2nd lot till the 5 ema is above 10 ema (Black Line) .