This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Sunday 26 February 2012

27th Feb 2012

Prices and Moving Average:

Nifty closed at 5429 on last trading day which is below the trend Indicator 5 Dema ( 5484) . I infer the trend is down .

DLema is at 5457 . Only a close above this DLema will suggest weakening of downtrend presently on.
DHema at 5551 , Only a close above 5551 will suggest that 4th wave is over and we are in 5th to make another new high .

EW angle:

we did the ivth wave at 5341 of last 3rd wave from (4588-5630) , SO EW says we may end this 4th wave at the lvls closer to lvls of ivth wave of one degree less .Which comes to 5341 lvls . Refer to chart below..


Channels :

Breaking the green channel we can say that the 3rd wave up is done and we are in 4th wave down .
We are trading very near to the channel bottom ( the red channel )which come s in 5380-5400 zone .


As we move above the upper trendline of small blue channel that you see drawn for the 4th currently going on , we will be able to say that we are 5th wave UP.


Fibonacci Retracements:

Clearly as the close is below the DLema Momentum is DOWN.We see the 2nd wave of this move did a deep retracement so the 4th should do a shallow retracement which can be 23.6% or 38.2% .
23.6% comes close to the channel bottom 5385 lvls. Which suggests that we migth see a bounce on monday suggesting Wave B unfolding to up to be followed by wave C to down .

My Plan ;

Considering I have no positions at present ....
I will watch out for prices staying above or below the DLema ...If they close above the DLema 5457  at 10:00 close I will buy for target as DEma at 5484 and then DHema at 5551.

Or if we go down further ...will watch out for 5353  lvls ( this is where c=a for the 4th wave going on presently) and if we get there , will buy there .