This is my trading file to organise and jot down my take on the market .I do Technical Analysis. This blog is to keep track of my baby steps so that I can look back at my journey .Looking back tells me how far I have come from days when I knew nothing and can go further .It gives me motivation to keep going on even when I am tired. One has to back up trading with their own studies. The charts I post here are 99% inspired from Ilango sir.



Wednesday 29 February 2012

Trade plan for 29th feb

Broken ORB to down ...no positions presently
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
very simple plan for the day
5451 Week High ema.
5470 is Dhigh ema
trading above Pivot for the day , 5442 is the R2 for the day.Trading above that
At 10:00 close we are trading  above Hour high ema and 5 Hour close ema ..making the hour trend up and buy signal at 5444.
now
ORB for today is 5425-5459
On the break of 5459 to up I will buy with 20 points SL .

Tuesday 28 February 2012

EOD 28th FEB

Candle patter is a bullish harami we got there today , indicating bullishness ..so more upside .

Also I see the Day trend is still down with a close below 5 Day ema and hour trend is now Up with close above Hour 5 Ema ..so I have to watch for weakness in hour trend or hour reaching OB with -ve divergence ..that would be clear signal to go short. As the day trend is down and Hour is Up , weakness in hour can be sold , Unless day trend turns up as well ....So for now keeping my eyes on Hour trend .
I have to rush to attend some work ...more detailed analysis EOD 29th Feb.

28th Feb

Hectic schedule today ...would not be able to update today

Monday 27 February 2012

EOD 27th Feb


We did not Hold the anticipated lvls at 5353 for 4th wave presently going on , Lets see the retracement lvls of this move from 4588 to 5630




Next level to watch is 38.2 % which comes to 5231 zone .



Moving Average:

With today's close at 5281 we close below the week 5 Ema at 5330 which brings the week TA in sell on rises as well  also indicating developing strength in momentum downwards...
So Hour trend is down , Day trend down and now week trend in sell on rises so now for rest 5 days , I will look for a bounce in day TF to short ..If Hour time frame gets to OB with -ve divergence anytime in this week then that would be opportunity to go short .

the Low ema for week is 5228 coinciding with 38.2% retracement 5231, that could be a place to go long.
20 Ma as has crossed below 100 Ma in day chart also the 5 ema has crossed below 10 ema today , Indicating  more downside to come .

In hour TF prices closed right  at 200 MA which is at 5282 .If we hold this tomorow 1st session  we may see some bounce . If not we are heading to 38.2% minimum.

Channels :

In this 4th we are trading in a very narrow channel ..below is a hour chart
Keeping a watch on upper trendline of this channel for a sure buy signal .

27th Feb 11:00 close

We are approching the level I planned to go long 5353 ...At the same time I see that 5 day ema presently at 5543 has crossed below 10 day ema 5545 . Which indicates Shorts should be entering so lettle skeptical about going long now at 5353 lvls . Just watching the index today and keying in hourly close .

Update at 12:00


Keeping a watch on 20 and 100 MAs ..for a  fast rise or more down side ...

Sunday 26 February 2012

27th Feb 2012

Prices and Moving Average:

Nifty closed at 5429 on last trading day which is below the trend Indicator 5 Dema ( 5484) . I infer the trend is down .

DLema is at 5457 . Only a close above this DLema will suggest weakening of downtrend presently on.
DHema at 5551 , Only a close above 5551 will suggest that 4th wave is over and we are in 5th to make another new high .

EW angle:

we did the ivth wave at 5341 of last 3rd wave from (4588-5630) , SO EW says we may end this 4th wave at the lvls closer to lvls of ivth wave of one degree less .Which comes to 5341 lvls . Refer to chart below..


Channels :

Breaking the green channel we can say that the 3rd wave up is done and we are in 4th wave down .
We are trading very near to the channel bottom ( the red channel )which come s in 5380-5400 zone .


As we move above the upper trendline of small blue channel that you see drawn for the 4th currently going on , we will be able to say that we are 5th wave UP.


Fibonacci Retracements:

Clearly as the close is below the DLema Momentum is DOWN.We see the 2nd wave of this move did a deep retracement so the 4th should do a shallow retracement which can be 23.6% or 38.2% .
23.6% comes close to the channel bottom 5385 lvls. Which suggests that we migth see a bounce on monday suggesting Wave B unfolding to up to be followed by wave C to down .

My Plan ;

Considering I have no positions at present ....
I will watch out for prices staying above or below the DLema ...If they close above the DLema 5457  at 10:00 close I will buy for target as DEma at 5484 and then DHema at 5551.

Or if we go down further ...will watch out for 5353  lvls ( this is where c=a for the 4th wave going on presently) and if we get there , will buy there .

Friday 24 February 2012

24th Feb 2012

ORB ==> 5476-5521 ...break on either one of the side may give 20 points

5511 5ema
5494 Day Pivot
5482 DLema
5470 10 Day ema
5460 gap starts .

We are opening at channel bottom ..so some upside can be seen ...if not then a
Close Below 5470 weakness starts and below 5460 gets confirmed .
 watch out for ORB

Wednesday 22 February 2012

Things to watch for 23rd Feb

  • On day chart , slow Macd has turned down but not yet triggered , keep an eye on this indicator if it triggers ...

  • Pivot is 5542 . Above this strength and below this weakness .
  • Price have indeed closed below the 5 day ema at 5524 making the trend down . keep a watch on day low ema at 5493 .
  • EW says we are done with the 3rd wave , so we are in 4th now this 4th will unfold in 3 waves ..check the ew page for further details .


EOD 22nd

So we made a ST top at 5630 today , Divergence plays its part today .

Moving Average:

After a long time prices closed below 5 day close EMA and below Day high ema at 5580 ,bringing sell on rises in picture .

Prices have taken support at Day low ema zone( 5498 ).
7 hr ma is below 21 and 34 hr MA.

 

22nd Feb

Plan for the day -->

5534 is D5ema
5555 DHema
5592 HLema
5597 Pivot

Short at golden ratio ( 5648 zone)
or take shorts if prices close below HLema on a hour candle.

Tuesday 21 February 2012

EOD 21st Feb : No weakness yet

Price did make a new high but no weakness in prices seen today .
Also the golden ratio still untouched . Channel resistance comes at 5648 , this is also the golden ratio from where we were to initiate shorts . Prices still trading within the channel .
We got a candle with green body , with prices closing near the highs .

Weakness only when prices close below 5 ema which for today comes to 5536 .
5588 is the Hour low ema , prices closing below this lvl will be first sign of weakness .
5597 is day Pivot .
For now no weakness in the prices .

Monday 20 February 2012

Observations for 21/2/2012

Prices still making higher highs ..And I am waiting for prices to fall for quite some days now thinking that the prices should fall , but they are still making higher highs ..lets see the key points and try to come to some conclusion  .

Divergence :

Very  clearly one can see divergence in hour charts as well as day charts now with almost all the indicators .
Below is a Day chart with 9 Rsi



This  is suggesting that prices should be moving down soon .

Moving Average:


Tuesday 7 February 2012

Bearish Belt Hold

When will I learn to CLick ?

Twice nifty reached the 5400 lvl where I wanted to go short ...Reason
1) -ve divergence seen in day chart yesterday
2) Nifty gapped up and opened at Channel Top .
3) Golden ratio 61.8 % done at 5404 from the fall 5944-4531.

Good enough reasons to go short ..with SL=5414 day high ..Just 15 Points risk and good gains .
so
4) risk to reward ratio was also favorable .
5) Hour SAR triggered "sell" at 5364 .

7th Feb 2012

With a Gap up it seems that we have done the 5th wave of fifth within the 3rd wave ...
here is the chart.


Monday 6 February 2012

The Fifth wave of the fifth wave ?

Are we almost there ?
EW Angle:

I have been reading the last of 9th chapter and 10th Chapter from Robert Beckmen . He says if you can figure out when the fifth of fifth is ending then ,that could be the most rewarding persuit for a trader /Investor.
Here is the Hour chart

Friday 3 February 2012

waiting on sidelines

Waiting on sidelines for a clear trend to emerge ...
Prices are closing below Hour high ema but too close ...so unable to take any positions . I want to short the market ...but this time will strictly go with discipline...will short only once the price close below the HLema / Dema..

Waiting for the prices to close below the Hour Low ema ..


                                                        Open       High                  Low             Close        5ema                 10ema      HHema     HLema

2/2/2012 10:00          5,272          5,288          5,270          5,283      5,234      5,210      5,243      5,218







2/2/2012 11:00          5,283          5,290          5,245          5,274      5,247      5,222      5,258      5,227







2/2/2012 12:00          5,273          5,280          5,226          5,271      5,255      5,231      5,265      5,227







2/2/2012 13:00          5,271          5,282          5,258          5,276      5,262      5,239      5,271      5,237







2/2/2012 14:00          5,276          5,288          5,251          5,261      5,262      5,243      5,277      5,242







2/2/2012 15:00          5,261          5,280          5,250          5,260      5,261      5,246      5,278      5,245







2/2/2012 16:00          5,260          5,278          5,260          5,270      5,264      5,250      5,278      5,250







3/2/2012 10:00          5,276          5,279          5,259          5,267      5,265      5,253      5,278      5,253







3/2/2012 11:00          5,267          5,274          5,256          5,272      5,267      5,257      5,277      5,254







3/2/2012 12:00          5,272          5,278          5,265          5,270      5,268      5,259      5,277      5,258








EW  says we are in some corrective am not able to give any #s presently.