19th Dec

The Fast Fall did materialise today morning and Nifty fell to 4556 .

I see +ve divergence in 9 Rsi  chart (above) but this divergence is there for last 3-4 days .
There is a bounce coming soon ..when ?

As the 5 sma moves above 10 sma as seen in the chart , it has made me come out of my short position  .

As far as Moving average channel is considered , I will wait for the red signal line here to cross over the yellow line for a buy signal.

I will wait for a good set up before taking any other positions .

Hour high ema at 4618 presently ,

As prices above hour low ema at 4576 they indicated a buy and as prices close above Hour high ema at 4618 then it will be buy and hold .

Price currently  very close to day high at 4623 if they close above 4600 , it will give a very small body with gap down on day chart .

and If we open Gap up tomorow , then Morning star may be in the making .

Day low ema at 4659 , prices crossing this lvl and closing above it  will generate a "buy" signal for me .

Prices moving below 4575 and closing , generate a "sell" for me.

Elliott Wave.

Long term chart                                                           Weekly Nifty chart .

There are 2 possibilities presently . We are in wave C to down in 5 waves out of which i , ii done ii going on iv and v to follow  .

Let me put it here again

A- 5400-4639 =761

    B- 4639-5099 = 460

    C is on (Down) in 5 waves , Expectation = A = 761 which comes to 4338 !!!!!!

           1   5099-4728 =371

           2   was a irregular flat , whose wave c could not do the expected that is above wave b so effects could be very implusive wave 3 ...I guess which we saw today.
      so 2 = 90
             a-4728-4839
             b-4839-4673
             c-4673-4818 ( fell short of expectation which was above 4839 atleast)
Now 3 going on in 5 waves min target = 1 = 371 which comes to 4447
 we touched 4556 (19 dec)

The other possibility ( In RED) is that we are almost finishing b.B and will start c.B soon ( This B is a irregular flat where in b.B went below the start of a.b) so possibilities of c.B touching lvls higher than high of b.B ( 5099).