Observations for 21/2/2012

Prices still making higher highs ..And I am waiting for prices to fall for quite some days now thinking that the prices should fall , but they are still making higher highs ..lets see the key points and try to come to some conclusion  .

Divergence :

Very  clearly one can see divergence in hour charts as well as day charts now with almost all the indicators .
Below is a Day chart with 9 Rsi

This  is suggesting that prices should be moving down soon .

Moving Average:

 

Prices have closed above almost all the moving averages
Hour TF :    Prices have closed below the 5 Hclose EMA but not below the HLema .
 hour 5 ema is above 10 Ema
Dat TF :   Prices closed above 5Dema ( trend indicator ) so trend is up and also the DHema  indicating that momentum is also not lost still .

MAs say that no weakness as of now . Weakness only below 5 ema.

Channels/EW :

Prices trading within the red channel we see here ,  and I have drawn a line connecting the points 4531 and 5606 , and then draw a line ||el to it from the extreme point within the move . This is the green channel the narrower one . this green channel is to be broken to down which is around the lvl 5450  , if there is any downside coming as suggested by the divergence .

Candle stick ;

 On the day chart we have a gapped up Doji with prices closing near the lows of the day...Doji shows indecisiveness . We may also have a evening star in the making if we get a bearish candle with a gap down next trading session , only the next trading day will tell us this now .

Fibonacci Retracements:

We are approching the golden ratio at 5648 as seen in the chart . So if we touch 5648 lvls then that can be a good area to go short .

For now

• Moving average says still UP ,
• Channel says we have touched the channel top so some correction .
• Candle stick pattern says not decided .
• Divergence says DOWN.
• EW says DOWN.
• Fibonacci says about to start to DOWN