The Fifth wave of the fifth wave ?

Are we almost there ?
EW Angle:

I have been reading the last of 9th chapter and 10th Chapter from Robert Beckmen . He says if you can figure out when the fifth of fifth is ending then ,that could be the most rewarding persuit for a trader /Investor.
Here is the Hour chart

waiting on sidelines

Waiting on sidelines for a clear trend to emerge ...
Prices are closing below Hour high ema but too close ...so unable to take any positions . I want to short the market ...but this time will strictly go with discipline...will short only once the price close below the HLema / Dema..

Waiting for the prices to close below the Hour Low ema ..


                                                        Open       High                  Low             Close        5ema                 10ema      HHema     HLema

2/2/2012 10:00	5,272	5,288	5,270	5,283	5,234	5,210	5,243	5,218
2/2/2012 11:00	5,283	5,290	5,245	5,274	5,247	5,222	5,258	5,227
2/2/2012 12:00	5,273	5,280	5,226	5,271	5,255	5,231	5,265	5,227
2/2/2012 13:00	5,271	5,282	5,258	5,276	5,262	5,239	5,271	5,237
2/2/2012 14:00	5,276	5,288	5,251	5,261	5,262	5,243	5,277	5,242
2/2/2012 15:00	5,261	5,280	5,250	5,260	5,261	5,246	5,278	5,245
2/2/2012 16:00	5,260	5,278	5,260	5,270	5,264	5,250	5,278	5,250
3/2/2012 10:00	5,276	5,279	5,259	5,267	5,265	5,253	5,278	5,253
3/2/2012 11:00	5,267	5,274	5,256	5,272	5,267	5,257	5,277	5,254
3/2/2012 12:00	5,272	5,278	5,265	5,270	5,268	5,259	5,277	5,258

EW  says we are in some corrective am not able to give any #s presently.

Hanging Man gets confirmed with an Evening star on the charts !

Evening Star pattern is :
A bearish candlestick pattern consisting of three candles.
1.The first bar is a large white candlestick located within an uptrend.
2.The middle bar is a small-bodied candle (red or white) that closes above the first white bar.
3.The last bar is a large red candle that opens below the middle candle and closes near the centre of the first bar's body.
Today's Candle is encompassing the whole candle of first day in the pattern .This shows a strong bearish possibilities .
The day closed at 5087 was below the 5 Day ema  at 5111 ...so the

Day Trend turns down today.
Hour Trend has been down since 10:00 close today morning.

Indicators :
All the indicators showing weakness ... Hour fast macd turned below zero during the day and slow macd about to cross the zero line , that may happen tomorrow .

Moving Averages :

Prices closed below the 50 sma at 5092 .
The MAs are aligned in the bearish way.
Closed above Day low ema at 5080 ...at 10:00 close tomorrow if it is below 5080 then a shorting opportunity again .

Sitting Tight most difficult thing to do

I should have carried the position , and not closed it according to rules .
I was in a trade with zero risk ..as developing hour high ema was coming to 5143 and I took a position at 5154 so even if prices closed above hour high ( as the rule says to close the short position , as and when prices close above hour high ema ) I would have made 10 points or minimum loss  .
Hanging Man was also confirmed by todays action and also an Evening Star in the making . Indicating a down movement further for sure .

30th Jan 2012

The trade should be still on according to the rules , that a close above Hour  high ema  should be the stop loss ....But as I saw 50 points and saw it reduce to 40 point s , I booked out ...after a long time some gain I saw :)
I should have sit tight and should not have closed the position . but I did
------------------------------------

Today at 10:00 close I shorted 1 lot of mininifty ...
Based on
1) Prices closed(5150) well below the Hour low ema at 5170 .
2) Gap down supporting the hanging man formed on friday.
--will update here as the day moves on

Divergence

There are 4 kinds of Divergences

Regular Divergence:

• Higher highs in price and lower highs in the oscillator which indicate a trend reversal from up to down.

• Lower lows in price and higher lows in the oscillator which indicate a trend reversal from down to up.

Hidden Divergence:

• Lower highs in price and higher highs in the oscillator which indicate a confirmation of the price trend which is down.

• Higher lows in price and lower lows in the oscillator which indicate a confirmation of the price trend which is up.

Divergence is a comparison of price to technical indicators. It can also be a comparison to another symbol or spread between two symbols. Divergence occurs when what you are comparing is moving in opposite directions. Divergence can signal an up coming change in trend, a change of trend in progress or that a trend should continue. A divergence signal suggests watching for a trading opportunity in the direction of the signal. Divergences may continue over many swing highs/lows so price action should confirm your trade. This can be done in many ways, some of which are: price making a higher high/low or lower high/low or price testing the last swing high/low, price trading past high or low of previous bar, many of which will correspond with the MACD histogram crossing zero.

How does a Price action confirms -ve Divergence??

Hanging Man after a rally

So evening star is out of question ...as we gapped up .
But on the charts there is a Hanging man formed after a prolonged rally which started with a hammer formed at 4588 . This hanging man is also formed at 200 sma at 5212.

Here is the day chart

Evening Star in the making?

We had a big white candle yesterday and today we had gap up with a spinning top candle . Now If we get a Black candle on friday as shown then this will happen after a good Rally , indicating a reversal .
I am expecting a reversal , so may be I am seeing thing s ...On friday lets see what happens , we are also at a very strong resistance of 5170 ,



Today's candle looks like

Lvls to watch on 25th Jan

Price zones / levels that need to be closely watched ...

Monthly trend is Down .
Weekly trend is Up .
Daily Trend Up
Hourly Trend UP.

Hour close Ema @ 5119. As long as prices close above this hour trend will remain up .

Indicators suggest OB for some time now . Also -ve divergence all over the hour charts ...correction will come soon I feel but when ?

For now weakness if prices close below Hour close Ema with some volumes that is 5119.
The Hour low Ema @ 5104 .
Day TF says

Day close Ema @ 5044 , DHema @ 5058 and DLema @ 4995.
Now if we keep a filter of 15 points to HLema in Hour TF then it comes to 5089.
Monthly Pivot 4792
Week Pivot 4980
Day Pivot 5106.
Shorting opportunity once prices close below 5089.
Some Charts :

Prices are trading at the channel resistance ...

23rd Jan 2012

Here are some numbers one should keep a watch on ...

Hour Time Frame

5053  HHema
5041  HCema
5018  HLema .

Developing Day Time Frame lvls

HHema   4995
DCema   4980
DLema   4941