Things to watch for 23rd Feb

• On day chart , slow Macd has turned down but not yet triggered , keep an eye on this indicator if it triggers ...

• Pivot is 5542 . Above this strength and below this weakness .
• Price have indeed closed below the 5 day ema at 5524 making the trend down . keep a watch on day low ema at 5493 .
• EW says we are done with the 3rd wave , so we are in 4th now this 4th will unfold in 3 waves ..check the ew page for further details .

EOD 22nd

So we made a ST top at 5630 today , Divergence plays its part today .

Moving Average:

After a long time prices closed below 5 day close EMA and below Day high ema at 5580 ,bringing sell on rises in picture .

Prices have taken support at Day low ema zone( 5498 ).
7 hr ma is below 21 and 34 hr MA.

 

22nd Feb

Plan for the day -->

5534 is D5ema
5555 DHema
5592 HLema
5597 Pivot

Short at golden ratio ( 5648 zone)
or take shorts if prices close below HLema on a hour candle.

EOD 21st Feb : No weakness yet

Price did make a new high but no weakness in prices seen today .
Also the golden ratio still untouched . Channel resistance comes at 5648 , this is also the golden ratio from where we were to initiate shorts . Prices still trading within the channel .
We got a candle with green body , with prices closing near the highs .

Weakness only when prices close below 5 ema which for today comes to 5536 .
5588 is the Hour low ema , prices closing below this lvl will be first sign of weakness .
5597 is day Pivot .
For now no weakness in the prices .

Observations for 21/2/2012

Prices still making higher highs ..And I am waiting for prices to fall for quite some days now thinking that the prices should fall , but they are still making higher highs ..lets see the key points and try to come to some conclusion  .

Divergence :

Very  clearly one can see divergence in hour charts as well as day charts now with almost all the indicators .
Below is a Day chart with 9 Rsi

This  is suggesting that prices should be moving down soon .

Moving Average:

Bearish Belt Hold

Read about it at

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishbelthold.asp#axzz1liWBGXQe

• http://blog.nobletrading.com/2009/03/bearish-belt-hold-candlestick.html

When will I learn to CLick ?

Twice nifty reached the 5400 lvl where I wanted to go short ...Reason
1) -ve divergence seen in day chart yesterday
2) Nifty gapped up and opened at Channel Top .
3) Golden ratio 61.8 % done at 5404 from the fall 5944-4531.

Good enough reasons to go short ..with SL=5414 day high ..Just 15 Points risk and good gains .
so
4) risk to reward ratio was also favorable .
5) Hour SAR triggered "sell" at 5364 .

7th Feb 2012

With a Gap up it seems that we have done the 5th wave of fifth within the 3rd wave ...

here is the chart.

The Fifth wave of the fifth wave ?

Are we almost there ?
EW Angle:

I have been reading the last of 9th chapter and 10th Chapter from Robert Beckmen . He says if you can figure out when the fifth of fifth is ending then ,that could be the most rewarding persuit for a trader /Investor.
Here is the Hour chart

waiting on sidelines

Waiting on sidelines for a clear trend to emerge ...
Prices are closing below Hour high ema but too close ...so unable to take any positions . I want to short the market ...but this time will strictly go with discipline...will short only once the price close below the HLema / Dema..

Waiting for the prices to close below the Hour Low ema ..


                                                        Open       High                  Low             Close        5ema                 10ema      HHema     HLema

2/2/2012 10:00	5,272	5,288	5,270	5,283	5,234	5,210	5,243	5,218
2/2/2012 11:00	5,283	5,290	5,245	5,274	5,247	5,222	5,258	5,227
2/2/2012 12:00	5,273	5,280	5,226	5,271	5,255	5,231	5,265	5,227
2/2/2012 13:00	5,271	5,282	5,258	5,276	5,262	5,239	5,271	5,237
2/2/2012 14:00	5,276	5,288	5,251	5,261	5,262	5,243	5,277	5,242
2/2/2012 15:00	5,261	5,280	5,250	5,260	5,261	5,246	5,278	5,245
2/2/2012 16:00	5,260	5,278	5,260	5,270	5,264	5,250	5,278	5,250
3/2/2012 10:00	5,276	5,279	5,259	5,267	5,265	5,253	5,278	5,253
3/2/2012 11:00	5,267	5,274	5,256	5,272	5,267	5,257	5,277	5,254
3/2/2012 12:00	5,272	5,278	5,265	5,270	5,268	5,259	5,277	5,258

EW  says we are in some corrective am not able to give any #s presently.