EOD 21st Feb : No weakness yet

Price did make a new high but no weakness in prices seen today .
Also the golden ratio still untouched . Channel resistance comes at 5648 , this is also the golden ratio from where we were to initiate shorts . Prices still trading within the channel .
We got a candle with green body , with prices closing near the highs .

Weakness only when prices close below 5 ema which for today comes to 5536 .
5588 is the Hour low ema , prices closing below this lvl will be first sign of weakness .
5597 is day Pivot .
For now no weakness in the prices .

Observations for 21/2/2012

Prices still making higher highs ..And I am waiting for prices to fall for quite some days now thinking that the prices should fall , but they are still making higher highs ..lets see the key points and try to come to some conclusion  .

Divergence :

Very  clearly one can see divergence in hour charts as well as day charts now with almost all the indicators .
Below is a Day chart with 9 Rsi

This  is suggesting that prices should be moving down soon .

Moving Average:

Bearish Belt Hold

Read about it at

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishbelthold.asp#axzz1liWBGXQe

• http://blog.nobletrading.com/2009/03/bearish-belt-hold-candlestick.html

When will I learn to CLick ?

Twice nifty reached the 5400 lvl where I wanted to go short ...Reason
1) -ve divergence seen in day chart yesterday
2) Nifty gapped up and opened at Channel Top .
3) Golden ratio 61.8 % done at 5404 from the fall 5944-4531.

Good enough reasons to go short ..with SL=5414 day high ..Just 15 Points risk and good gains .
so
4) risk to reward ratio was also favorable .
5) Hour SAR triggered "sell" at 5364 .

7th Feb 2012

With a Gap up it seems that we have done the 5th wave of fifth within the 3rd wave ...

here is the chart.

The Fifth wave of the fifth wave ?

Are we almost there ?
EW Angle:

I have been reading the last of 9th chapter and 10th Chapter from Robert Beckmen . He says if you can figure out when the fifth of fifth is ending then ,that could be the most rewarding persuit for a trader /Investor.
Here is the Hour chart

waiting on sidelines

Waiting on sidelines for a clear trend to emerge ...
Prices are closing below Hour high ema but too close ...so unable to take any positions . I want to short the market ...but this time will strictly go with discipline...will short only once the price close below the HLema / Dema..

Waiting for the prices to close below the Hour Low ema ..


                                                        Open       High                  Low             Close        5ema                 10ema      HHema     HLema

2/2/2012 10:00	5,272	5,288	5,270	5,283	5,234	5,210	5,243	5,218
2/2/2012 11:00	5,283	5,290	5,245	5,274	5,247	5,222	5,258	5,227
2/2/2012 12:00	5,273	5,280	5,226	5,271	5,255	5,231	5,265	5,227
2/2/2012 13:00	5,271	5,282	5,258	5,276	5,262	5,239	5,271	5,237
2/2/2012 14:00	5,276	5,288	5,251	5,261	5,262	5,243	5,277	5,242
2/2/2012 15:00	5,261	5,280	5,250	5,260	5,261	5,246	5,278	5,245
2/2/2012 16:00	5,260	5,278	5,260	5,270	5,264	5,250	5,278	5,250
3/2/2012 10:00	5,276	5,279	5,259	5,267	5,265	5,253	5,278	5,253
3/2/2012 11:00	5,267	5,274	5,256	5,272	5,267	5,257	5,277	5,254
3/2/2012 12:00	5,272	5,278	5,265	5,270	5,268	5,259	5,277	5,258

EW  says we are in some corrective am not able to give any #s presently.

Hanging Man gets confirmed with an Evening star on the charts !

Evening Star pattern is :
A bearish candlestick pattern consisting of three candles.
1.The first bar is a large white candlestick located within an uptrend.
2.The middle bar is a small-bodied candle (red or white) that closes above the first white bar.
3.The last bar is a large red candle that opens below the middle candle and closes near the centre of the first bar's body.
Today's Candle is encompassing the whole candle of first day in the pattern .This shows a strong bearish possibilities .
The day closed at 5087 was below the 5 Day ema  at 5111 ...so the

Day Trend turns down today.
Hour Trend has been down since 10:00 close today morning.

Indicators :
All the indicators showing weakness ... Hour fast macd turned below zero during the day and slow macd about to cross the zero line , that may happen tomorrow .

Moving Averages :

Prices closed below the 50 sma at 5092 .
The MAs are aligned in the bearish way.
Closed above Day low ema at 5080 ...at 10:00 close tomorrow if it is below 5080 then a shorting opportunity again .

Sitting Tight most difficult thing to do

I should have carried the position , and not closed it according to rules .
I was in a trade with zero risk ..as developing hour high ema was coming to 5143 and I took a position at 5154 so even if prices closed above hour high ( as the rule says to close the short position , as and when prices close above hour high ema ) I would have made 10 points or minimum loss  .
Hanging Man was also confirmed by todays action and also an Evening Star in the making . Indicating a down movement further for sure .

30th Jan 2012

The trade should be still on according to the rules , that a close above Hour  high ema  should be the stop loss ....But as I saw 50 points and saw it reduce to 40 point s , I booked out ...after a long time some gain I saw :)
I should have sit tight and should not have closed the position . but I did
------------------------------------

Today at 10:00 close I shorted 1 lot of mininifty ...
Based on
1) Prices closed(5150) well below the Hour low ema at 5170 .
2) Gap down supporting the hanging man formed on friday.
--will update here as the day moves on