9/11/2012

Hour TA is OB ,
34 5 5 , has given a sell in hour TF .
Slow macd on day charts turned up just touching the zero line indicating bullish  , but has not triggered yet .
Day Rsi , has more room to OB .further up possible.
Hour TA and Day TA are not giving any clear signal to me presently .

on sidelines .
 

10th Sep 2012

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5449	5216	233	5270.988	5304.54	5332.5	5360.041	5387.488	5402.4

 

Channel :

We have broken the downtrending channel cearly and have been now in upward channel ,
this is a very steep channel , will have to wait for some more time to draw it ,

Retracement s :

As we see , 5360 is 61.8 % of last fall from 5448 to 5216. we have done 5366 on sat.
and 5402 is 80% , So clearly anything above 5402 is clear strength.

And one trade that I can see presently is short close to 5387 with 5403 as SL .


Ew wise from 5216 we have done 5 waves ..as

Indicators :

Hour TA has reached OB region with last 2 days action .


50 and 20 MA are at the same value , they have been giving FF and FR .This time is it fast fall ? Only time will tell .

 

My inference is ,
We are close to completion of 5 waves , so a correction is on cards . Gap may act as support if there is any correction . Breaking 5309 would be the first sign . If not then 5402 must be broken for further upsides .

Day TF has one strong possibility as

 

Infosys

Last close 2487

 

TA which says Bullish ,

 

Week trend Up with momentum , with a close above WHema 2434.

Day High ema 2430 , Hour high ema 2484

Indicates trending Up .

 

EW counts

from 2101 Up  ,

 

a 2101-2483=382

b 2483-2332=151
possibility of c on in 5 waves Target can be ,

c 2332-** (  2714 if =A,) ( 2568 if = .618*A) Bullish

 

SS turning up from lvls close to 20  Bullish

 

Macd(  34 5 5) turned up near to 0 lvls Bullish with a + crossover . Macd Histogram also showing momentum .

 

Some charts to support my observations .....

Bearish Observations :

I see -ve divergence developing in hour TF
Hour TA is OB .
Gap ahead which may act as resistance .
If I join the top 3469 to recent low and Draw a || el line tangential to extreme move between the move , we are right at it presently , If we cross this and prices trade above this then this would act as good support . If not then down again .

 

EOD 5th Sep 2012

Yesterday EOD the observations indicated towards a green day today and we open Gap down  and then after some consolidation , touch the day channel bottom .

I feel I missed looking at the week TF , which was down and did not take into consideration that it could assert itself .

So The Gap filled at 5216 . And we closed 5225.75
And touched the day channel bottom ,
Also on hour charts I saw a Hammer ( 1:00 O'clock candle) .
A Hammer at day channel bottom on hour charts  , good to take long calls with SL 5216 .
But Prices were trading below HLema DayLema and WLema . So resisted my self .

Presently the Hour channel resistance is at 5270 and
Day channel support at 5210

only on break of either of these two I will know where prices want to go for this month.
Divergence :

+ve Divergence still there in the hour charts .

Day TA is OS .

But Divergences fail when the higher TF does not align with the direction of divergence , Here Week TF is red and we have +ve  divergence in hour charts . So better to wait out for the Hour channel top to be taken out before any Longs .

34 hour- HI lo still says to be on the short side .

5 and 20 MA gave another fast fall today . This is the 4th time this combination has given FF since the top 5448.

EOD today , I feel bears have upper hand . Lets see how we open up tommorow.
 

EOD 4th Sep2012

With today's close  at 5274

we closed above Hour high ema and  Day low ema  with  +ve divergence in hour charts still there  , and Macd ( 34 5 5) gives a buy in hour TF .

I do not have any positions presently will wait for tomorow , I did short in the first part of the day , covered it around noon with a small profit .

Day charts 9 Rsi in OS region with hour charts showing +ve divergence .

on hour TF 5-10ema  +ve crossover in place with the close ,

5 Day ema at 5283
Hour channel top also at 5282
DayHema at 5311

Fast MACD on hour TF , crosses over zero line .

Channel yet to be taken out ,

If we take out this channel top in tommorow's trading session , then it is a macd buy with +ve divergence .
All my obervations indicating towards a UP day tommorow . Lets see how we open .
Have a nice day !

Eod 3rd Sep.2012

Things to watch ,
We ended with a insiders day with a close at 5253.75



Day 9Rsi is OS being below 20 , and there is a +ve divergence in hour charts .

With a close below Day low ema , we are trending down with momentum .
If this +ve divergence has to play then , without getting negated , we will get a close above Day low ema ( 5268) as first sign.
presently day channel bottom at 5205 lvls.

Did go long in the morning , thinking a bounce will come as last leg of wave B , but came out as the day low was broken .
 

EOD 31st August2012

Hmm , so we break 5255 yesterdays low .

Day low ema at 5280 and we closed below that indicating the trend is down with good momentum now  ,

EW wise also ,
2 possibilities that I can see presently ,
Option 1
A done at 5255
B On in the form of expanded flat ..this will target above 5340 if this is the case , and comming monday should see this bounce as B.c as long as 5238 is held.

Option 2

A done at 5255
B done at 5340
C is on in 5 waves down . If this is the case then Equality to A is what is expected .
 we will look for 5 waves to finish to go long now.If accompanained with a +ve divergence and even better.


Divergence :

Hour charts are showing +ve divergence ..but day channel bottom is around 5200 and we closed below day low ema so I will wait it out . I guess till then +ve divergence will ripe .

Happy weekend to All !

31st August 2012

EW from 5033 with Macd( 5 34 5)

For the move from 5033-5448 , We may have done 1st corrective A at 5255 today as this is a 5 wave , probability of this corrective to be ZZ is there , and now B is on which should be 3 waves in all followed by C which will be 5 waves  .Retracement for this B can be

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5448	5255	193	5300.548	5328.34	5351.5	5374.313	5397.048	5409.4

Trade plan :

Buy as close to 5255 as possible for B wave up or If RR does not favor then , wait out and
 at  61.8% 5374 to 73.6% 5397can be a good entry for shorts with 5410 SL ( more than 80%) .All this provided 5255 is not broken .

Trend :
Close at 5315

Hour trend turns up with momentum , with a close above hour high ema 5305
Day Ema at 5331 , Day high ema at 5365 .
Weekhigh ema 5376 can act as resistance , for this upmove if it is B and As long as 5255 is not broken towards down .

30 august 2012

Close at 5287.8

Day TF trending down with a close below DLema
and so is Hour TF  .
With todays close week trend turns down as well .

I see +ve divergence in hour charts with Hour TF indicators OS....

 

But sir says ,

"Look for +ve divergence when one cycle higher time frame is in the "Oversold region".

For eg: Day is near the oversold region; Look for +ve div in Hour .Caution here is that the week TA is at Overbought region and threatening to "reverse to downtrend".

Remember to pay attention to the higher T/F being oversold to see the lower t/f for +ve div. 9 period rsi is a fairly good indicator.

In the background, keep key support & resistances numbers.

When a major support is broken, such div. may become traps too"

So lets see the 9 rsi day chart ,

RSI is yet to reach the OS region , so probably more downside to be seen .

 

We are in downtrending channel ,

Longs if and when

 Break of yellow TL upside probably happens along with day 9 rsi in OS region ( less than 20) and good +ve divergence in hour charts .

Untill then shorts .

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5033	5448	-415	5350.06	5290.3	5240.5	5191.447	5142.56	5116
5165	5448	-283	5381.212	5340.46	5306.5	5273.049	5239.712	5221.6

 

29th August 2012

 

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5421	5313	108	5338.488	5354.04	5367	5379.766	5392.488	5399.4

 

we did 5343 today . If this was 3rd down to be followed by 5th then 5379 would be a good point to sell again , with 5400 as SL . If we move past 5400 then correction would be assumed over at 5313 for now . Anything above/below 80% is strength/weakness.

 

Channels

Downtrending channel is intact.

Trend remains down with momentum as closed below DLema .


20 crossed 50 today to down and now to watch is combination of 20 and 100.