Eod 3rd Sep.2012

Things to watch ,
We ended with a insiders day with a close at 5253.75



Day 9Rsi is OS being below 20 , and there is a +ve divergence in hour charts .

With a close below Day low ema , we are trending down with momentum .
If this +ve divergence has to play then , without getting negated , we will get a close above Day low ema ( 5268) as first sign.
presently day channel bottom at 5205 lvls.

Did go long in the morning , thinking a bounce will come as last leg of wave B , but came out as the day low was broken .
 

EOD 31st August2012

Hmm , so we break 5255 yesterdays low .

Day low ema at 5280 and we closed below that indicating the trend is down with good momentum now  ,

EW wise also ,
2 possibilities that I can see presently ,
Option 1
A done at 5255
B On in the form of expanded flat ..this will target above 5340 if this is the case , and comming monday should see this bounce as B.c as long as 5238 is held.

Option 2

A done at 5255
B done at 5340
C is on in 5 waves down . If this is the case then Equality to A is what is expected .
 we will look for 5 waves to finish to go long now.If accompanained with a +ve divergence and even better.


Divergence :

Hour charts are showing +ve divergence ..but day channel bottom is around 5200 and we closed below day low ema so I will wait it out . I guess till then +ve divergence will ripe .

Happy weekend to All !

31st August 2012

EW from 5033 with Macd( 5 34 5)

For the move from 5033-5448 , We may have done 1st corrective A at 5255 today as this is a 5 wave , probability of this corrective to be ZZ is there , and now B is on which should be 3 waves in all followed by C which will be 5 waves  .Retracement for this B can be

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5448	5255	193	5300.548	5328.34	5351.5	5374.313	5397.048	5409.4

Trade plan :

Buy as close to 5255 as possible for B wave up or If RR does not favor then , wait out and
 at  61.8% 5374 to 73.6% 5397can be a good entry for shorts with 5410 SL ( more than 80%) .All this provided 5255 is not broken .

Trend :
Close at 5315

Hour trend turns up with momentum , with a close above hour high ema 5305
Day Ema at 5331 , Day high ema at 5365 .
Weekhigh ema 5376 can act as resistance , for this upmove if it is B and As long as 5255 is not broken towards down .

30 august 2012

Close at 5287.8

Day TF trending down with a close below DLema
and so is Hour TF  .
With todays close week trend turns down as well .

I see +ve divergence in hour charts with Hour TF indicators OS....

 

But sir says ,

"Look for +ve divergence when one cycle higher time frame is in the "Oversold region".

For eg: Day is near the oversold region; Look for +ve div in Hour .Caution here is that the week TA is at Overbought region and threatening to "reverse to downtrend".

Remember to pay attention to the higher T/F being oversold to see the lower t/f for +ve div. 9 period rsi is a fairly good indicator.

In the background, keep key support & resistances numbers.

When a major support is broken, such div. may become traps too"

So lets see the 9 rsi day chart ,

RSI is yet to reach the OS region , so probably more downside to be seen .

 

We are in downtrending channel ,

Longs if and when

 Break of yellow TL upside probably happens along with day 9 rsi in OS region ( less than 20) and good +ve divergence in hour charts .

Untill then shorts .

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5033	5448	-415	5350.06	5290.3	5240.5	5191.447	5142.56	5116
5165	5448	-283	5381.212	5340.46	5306.5	5273.049	5239.712	5221.6

 

29th August 2012

 

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5421	5313	108	5338.488	5354.04	5367	5379.766	5392.488	5399.4

 

we did 5343 today . If this was 3rd down to be followed by 5th then 5379 would be a good point to sell again , with 5400 as SL . If we move past 5400 then correction would be assumed over at 5313 for now . Anything above/below 80% is strength/weakness.

 

Channels

Downtrending channel is intact.

Trend remains down with momentum as closed below DLema .


20 crossed 50 today to down and now to watch is combination of 20 and 100.

 

28th August 2012

We closed at 5350.25

Moving Average:
Hour trend was down , already and though we were closing above HLema for almost all day , around the last hours not only closed below the hour low ema , but DLema as well making the Day trend down with momentum .
Day low ema 5363 .

Keeping a watch on yellow UTL will be my guide .

 

EW lables can be seen as in the following chart.

Keeping a watch on 20 / 50 ema as well , they are at the same value resently , change in value with respect to each other may guide further .



	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5033	5448	-415	5350.06	5290.3	5240.5	5191.447	5142.56	5116
5399	5347	52	5359.272	5366.76	5373	5379.146	5385.272	5388.6

27 August 2012

Day and Hour Channels ,

Still  well within the day channel, Hour channel is broken ,
last falls from 5246 -5165 was 81 points , from 5378-5294 was of 84 points and from high of 5448 we have already done a fall of 77 points till 5371 anything more than 5364 downside  ( 5448-84) means the falls would be deeper .
 Also 80% of last rise comes to 5363 ,and  break of 80% warns you of more downside..new lows . Last low before we turned up was 5341.

 If prices take support at 5360-5370 zone , then HH is possible  , taking into consideration that day channel is yet intact and the bottom of channel  is far from where prices are trading now .

EOD 23rd August

Retracement for the fall from 5448 to 5394  comes at

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5448	5394	54	5406.744	5414.52	5421	5427.383	5433.744	5437.2

We have done 5419 already today close to 50% .

Day Trend is up having lost the momentum with today's close below high ema .
and Hour trend has turned down today withour momentum , as we closed above low ema.

on Hour TF 5 and 10 ema at 5419 , I will keep my eye on this .

Today's low 5394 , if we break this more weakness according to me .
5398 day ema
5371 day low ema

-ve divergence still persisting .

anything above 5438 means HH .
 

EW from 5033-5433

EW folks pls write your inputs .

Trend :

Hour trend is down without momentum  .
Day trend is up with Day high ema at 5407 and a close above it at 5413.

Owing to

• -ve divergence and
• ew looks to have completed wave3 today at 5433 and possibility of 4th down now

 I will look for weakness to short, First indication would be a close below hour low ema ( 5407) which is also day high ema.. retracement of last rise from 5342 to 5433 comes as

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5342	5433	(91)	5,412	5,398	5,388	5,377	5,366	5,360

                              
Day EW chart.

 

EOD 21st August.

Hour charts are continuing to show -ve divergence

Likewise day charts also are continously showing -ve divergence  .

But my HI lo system says a buy at 10:00 on hour charts  today morning with a close above hour high ema , 34 MA( 30 mins ) with 20 points SL.
If you feel that was risky , then buying on break of 5400 could have also worked today .

The Day trend is up with momentum with a close above Day high ema ,

and the Hour trend is also up with momentum with a close above Hour high ema.
I have no positions as of now .
If divergence has to play out , it will indicate by closing below hour high ( 5409) and then a close below 5 hour ema (5404) , untill then its a buy.
5393 is Hour low ema and Day high ema .