important #s for 20th June

5090 is Dema , Hour ema and also the pivot for 20th june Trading above or below it , can be strength or weakness.If we close above 5134 tomorow then week and day trend will become in uptrending mode.

Following can further gauge the momemtum ...

EOD 19th June 2012

Today was the day , I was determined to earn something out of the market .
And market on other hand was determined not to let me win , I did catch the bottom and top today but unfortunately in the opposite direction of market and my trades resulted in loss today .
Presently reading Frost and pretcher again ...to understand EW more and more .

They say trade a small qty , so that you can be in the race for long time ....me doing this correctly ..trading only mininifty.

EOD 18th June

Candle stick pattern

Bearish Engulfing is what we have today ..which not only engulfs yesterday's candle but  engulfs last 3 days candle .
 Also we call today as an Outside day .

channel
Today we broke the hour channel at 5069 , and touching low at 5041.

Momentum
Momentum is clearly down as we close below hour low ema ,
with todays close we have
Hour trend down ( 5 -10 bearish crossover happened )
Day trend down ( 5-10 crossover not yet taken place . )

Divergence

-ve Divergence played out well today .

Candle stick , channel , momentum all indicate a lot of weakness in prices .

Hi - Lo 34 hour ema says one should have shorted at 5080 with 5100 SL at 12:00 today .

I still have to work on EW labels ...which help a lot , and once a wise soul told me , is the only thing which never fails .

Intraday 18th June

breaking 5069 todays low would be first indication of further downside .

Looking at the chart below we find that

Observations for 18th June

Candle pattern :

We have a white Marubojo , indicating bullishness .
And EW wise accompnained by 3rd wave . more upsides.

Trend in different TFs saying
Hour trend up
Day trend Up
Week is up
Today's closing makes the month trend up as well .

Closed above mondays pivot 5118

Prices indicating only upsides from here ...

Indicators
Indicators on hour chart are showing -ve divergence .

Price clusters ( support / resistance)

It becomes very important to cross this5140-5150 zone for now and then  5170-5190 zone for further upsides .

Fib retracements .

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5630	4770	860	4,973 Done	5,097 Done	5,200	5,302	5,403	5,458

15th June Intraday

9:45 AM

I see Open and Low same so far in a 30 min candle .
ORB 5069-5096
watching for ORB break with Macd crossover , Ss Divergence .
My trade Plan for the day .

If 5096 breaks with +ve divergence in ss and macd crossover , then BUy with 20 ots SL . Also 5084-5095 is the resistance zone above which prices may further go up .
also 123 strategy calls for a buy on break of 5096 to up.

IF 5069 breaks with -ve divergence in ss and macd crossover then sell with 20 pts sl.

obervations for 15th june

Hour TA remained down for the whole day and spread accross on Day TA , as prices closed below 5 Dema making the hour and day trend down now .

we have closed below pivot (5077) as well.

On hour chart we are at channel bottom , breaking this bottom trendline leads to more downside and a bounce is also possible ( for that price will start to close above hour low ema ) For now  prices closing below hour low ema and also below 5 day ema / and 5DHema shows weakness.
On day chart , its evening star pattern indicating bearishness.
Technicals show weakness all over .

retracement of 4770-5144 are

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
4770	5144	(374)	5,056 Done	5,002	4,957	4,913	4,869	4,845

                                               

14th June 10:00 close

1st hour candle Open and low the same at 5105

We close above hourLema (5108) at 10.00 Inference , nifty may move to close ema and then hema as well .
Also closed above Dhema (5109)
Orb was 5127-5105  : which is not broken yet .

Inference : Can not short at present

Obervations for 14 june

All low emas in TT are alinged in increasing order .
Also the 5 emas are in increasing order ...
Now we have to wait for high emas to be also in increasing order , so that we can say a top is formed .
all of them infact are in increasing order expect for the last hour hour high ema which is less than the previous value . Day Pivot being at 5120.hour high ema at 5134
5121 is 5 ema , and we have closed right at 5121 .5109 is Hour low ema now a close below this can be used as shorting opportunity .
and a close above 5134 , a buy .
presently SS in OB region
I see -ve divergence in hour charts with 14 RSI  , Fmacd and SS indicators .

we have a spinning top formation today eod , which is indecisive , after a bullish engulfing day before .

Contradicting observations

• We have a Bullish Engulfing yesterday eod . Expecting more upsides .
• Prices closing above High emas showing upward momentum .
• EW labeling tells me to expect a down wave now .

As I write this 123 strategy generated a BUY at 5123 .

11:20

Out of the position Sl hit at 5113