EOD 18th June

Candle stick pattern

Bearish Engulfing is what we have today ..which not only engulfs yesterday's candle but  engulfs last 3 days candle .
 Also we call today as an Outside day .

channel
Today we broke the hour channel at 5069 , and touching low at 5041.

Momentum
Momentum is clearly down as we close below hour low ema ,
with todays close we have
Hour trend down ( 5 -10 bearish crossover happened )
Day trend down ( 5-10 crossover not yet taken place . )

Divergence

-ve Divergence played out well today .

Candle stick , channel , momentum all indicate a lot of weakness in prices .

Hi - Lo 34 hour ema says one should have shorted at 5080 with 5100 SL at 12:00 today .

I still have to work on EW labels ...which help a lot , and once a wise soul told me , is the only thing which never fails .

Intraday 18th June

breaking 5069 todays low would be first indication of further downside .

Looking at the chart below we find that

Observations for 18th June

Candle pattern :

We have a white Marubojo , indicating bullishness .
And EW wise accompnained by 3rd wave . more upsides.

Trend in different TFs saying
Hour trend up
Day trend Up
Week is up
Today's closing makes the month trend up as well .

Closed above mondays pivot 5118

Prices indicating only upsides from here ...

Indicators
Indicators on hour chart are showing -ve divergence .

Price clusters ( support / resistance)

It becomes very important to cross this5140-5150 zone for now and then  5170-5190 zone for further upsides .

Fib retracements .

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5630	4770	860	4,973 Done	5,097 Done	5,200	5,302	5,403	5,458

15th June Intraday

9:45 AM

I see Open and Low same so far in a 30 min candle .
ORB 5069-5096
watching for ORB break with Macd crossover , Ss Divergence .
My trade Plan for the day .

If 5096 breaks with +ve divergence in ss and macd crossover , then BUy with 20 ots SL . Also 5084-5095 is the resistance zone above which prices may further go up .
also 123 strategy calls for a buy on break of 5096 to up.

IF 5069 breaks with -ve divergence in ss and macd crossover then sell with 20 pts sl.

obervations for 15th june

Hour TA remained down for the whole day and spread accross on Day TA , as prices closed below 5 Dema making the hour and day trend down now .

we have closed below pivot (5077) as well.

On hour chart we are at channel bottom , breaking this bottom trendline leads to more downside and a bounce is also possible ( for that price will start to close above hour low ema ) For now  prices closing below hour low ema and also below 5 day ema / and 5DHema shows weakness.
On day chart , its evening star pattern indicating bearishness.
Technicals show weakness all over .

retracement of 4770-5144 are

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
4770	5144	(374)	5,056 Done	5,002	4,957	4,913	4,869	4,845

                                               

14th June 10:00 close

1st hour candle Open and low the same at 5105

We close above hourLema (5108) at 10.00 Inference , nifty may move to close ema and then hema as well .
Also closed above Dhema (5109)
Orb was 5127-5105  : which is not broken yet .

Inference : Can not short at present

Obervations for 14 june

All low emas in TT are alinged in increasing order .
Also the 5 emas are in increasing order ...
Now we have to wait for high emas to be also in increasing order , so that we can say a top is formed .
all of them infact are in increasing order expect for the last hour hour high ema which is less than the previous value . Day Pivot being at 5120.hour high ema at 5134
5121 is 5 ema , and we have closed right at 5121 .5109 is Hour low ema now a close below this can be used as shorting opportunity .
and a close above 5134 , a buy .
presently SS in OB region
I see -ve divergence in hour charts with 14 RSI  , Fmacd and SS indicators .

we have a spinning top formation today eod , which is indecisive , after a bullish engulfing day before .

Contradicting observations

• We have a Bullish Engulfing yesterday eod . Expecting more upsides .
• Prices closing above High emas showing upward momentum .
• EW labeling tells me to expect a down wave now .

As I write this 123 strategy generated a BUY at 5123 .

11:20

Out of the position Sl hit at 5113

EOD 8th June 12

Trendline :

Today's high falls exactly at the trendline making it now 4 points touching the trendline seen , making it a strong one .
This trendline can act as strong resistance on monday .
On monday if we see prices breaking this trendline and trading above it then , this line will act as strong support . And if we open below this and stay below , then chances of price going down .


Moving Average:

We have just closed below WHema ( 5072) .
In Day/Hour TF it is trending phase as we have  closed above High ema s


Looking at EW will help . I will work on it .

Trade on 8th June '12

12:30  pm

First trade today morning .
My Mindset was If prices open above Pivot then I will sell on break of 5039 (p) . It broke the Pivot and After  waiting for first few minutes I saw weakness in prices so ..

Sold NF @ 4995 in the morning as
Reason 1 : prices broke first Reaction low of the day ( 5017).
Reason 2: developing Hour Low ema was at 5024 ( 9:45 AM) and price closed below that .
Showing weakness as such Hour TA was OB.


Closed the position ( 10:50 AM) with 15 points loss looking at the pattern developing which was making higher  high and higher low .
Also prices started closing above (developing 11:00 AM ) hour low ema .

unfortunately I closed my position and next second , prices start to drop.

EOD :

As I think what wrong move I made ...I think I closed my position right at Pivot point which was 5039 . I should have waited for prices to break Pivot and then close the position . Pivot acted as resistance and prices retraced from there .
Trailing the SL is very important as the market is unfolding , we saw what happened in the last hour today ..