EOD 6th March

As I see the various indicators , the one that caught my eye was Hour slow macd with a positive divergence .

Moving Average:

Dema is at 5302 we clsoed well below that at 5222.
Day TF trend down
Hour TF trend down .
Pivot is at 5297 .

Channels :

As and when we break upper trend line of blue channel and close above it we can say we are in 5th wave up .

we have done the 38.2% of rise from 4588-5630 at 5231 ...now next is 50% at 5108.
Looking at the length of A from 5630 - 5268= 362
 If feel we have more room to go down as C . If one gets an opportunity , short with a close above hour high ema as SL.

Starting 6th March 2012

Keeping an eye on 50 and 200 sma for fast rise ...
If 50 now starts to rise ..then fast rise will materialize .

Update at 10:00
we closed at 5296 ..and Hour High ema at 5313 ..so did not take long position .One could have taken long at the break of pivot at 5297 though.
waiting and watching
***********************

We opened weak and touched and went beyond the 38.2% retaracement of the fall from 4588 - 5630 which is at 5231 ...we have done the requisite for the 4th wave ...we can be very well in the 5th wave to up

As wave 2 was deep , wave 4 has to be shallow .
34 D ema is at 5280 and now trading above 5300 ....If at 10 we close above this 5280 then upmove .

5302 is HHema , if we close above this as well then Buy on dips comes in picture .
5278 HLema

EOD 5th March

5Dema 5341 ,
5Hema 5289 ,
5Lema 5278,
Day pivot 5297,
21 hr MA 5325,
34 Hr Ma 5348,
10 DEma TF 5373
DayLema 5309.

.


We closed above HLema but below HHema and 5HrEma.
Very Important that we close below day L ema at 5309 .
indicating downside .
34 Dema , very important moving average , is at 5280 , Opening itself  will tell if weakness or strength ?


Looking at the day chart , It looks to me like 4th wave on in a ZZ (A B C ) . A and B done and now C going on in 5 waves down .

Moving Average:

For any upmove we have to close above 5341 the 5 DayEma .

Channels :

Upper green channel still intact , break of the channel upside will indicate that we are done with wave 4 and are in wave 5 which will go min = wave 1

Fibonacci Retracements:

5231 38.2% of 4588-5630
5108  50% of 4588- 5630

Look at this 9 Hr rsi chart ...RSI has made a triangle . I also see small +ve divergence .Is 4th wave coming to an end ? and 5th to start

Conclusion :
todays close is 5280. Break out of Range from 5275-5300 ,will give direction for trade tomorow .

Plan for 5th March

Did go short as per the plan with one lot of mini nifty(20) ...watched plus and minus in the account ..and at a point had strong urge to square off with having 20 points profit ...but then held and then watched the pointer go up again .  In 2 min TF prices broke the 34 period MA and closed above it  , was watching 5 min TF carefully and prices started to touch 34 period ma there also ..so came off  at the price entered bearing loss of  brokerage cost .

Leasons learnt today ....

• I should have waited for the prices to close above the 34 period ma , before squaring off   .
• I should have taken 2 lots so that , could have booked 20 points on 1 lot which could have fetched me brokerage + , keeping my capital preserved , while holding on to the 2nd lot .
• Preserving capital is the main goal  , so that i can play for Long .
• Intraday 20-30 points is good for me .

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

ORB for today is 5303-5345

breaking 5297 as per last post will suggest that we are in 3rd wave down of C .
Prices are trading below Hour 5 ema and HLema ( 5339) .
10:00 close will also give a clue and also if
If ORB is broken down before 10:00 , I will go short for the day , with a small sl and a small target.

EOD 2nd March 2012

I have drawn 2 yellow lines to denote the range of Big bar that covers next four days candle ...so  any move past these two lvls will suggest the course prices may take .


Today prices resisted at the upper Blue trendline ...

A triangle under formation ?
 
or Are we in C ? with B over at 5459 off which 1 and 2 done 3 will unfold ..if that happens we will break 5324 first then 5310 then finally 5297 ...break of 5297 will suggest that sub 5200 lvls will be touched .

Day trend still DOWN with a close below 5 day ema .

moving averages alinged , giving no clear signal ...If prices from here move up and 20  starts to rise it will be fast rise and if cross over takes place then we go DOWN.

Also short term moving averages are converging on hour chart ...break of  either 5459 or 5298 will give good gains on that side .

Nifty Counts

Bullish Counts

A  5630-5268
B Going on
    a   5268-5459
    b   5459-5297
    c Going on
        i   5297-5392
       ii   4392-5324
       iii  Going on
( Invalidation prices Going below 5324 and further confirm it by going below 5297)


Bearish Counts

A 5630-5268
B  5268-5459
C Going on in 5 waves down
   i    5459-5297
   ii   5297-5392
  iii Going on down in 5 wave s...

Confirmation if prices go below 5297. Invalidation ===> if go above 5459.

Trade plan for 02 March

Looking at EW probablities ...
we see that move down from 5630 is a 5 wave , so we are in a ZZ
now we did ist set of 5 waves at 5268 making
A   5630 - 5268 = 362
From here two possibilities arise ...

1. either we finished B at 5459 in 3 waves and have started the C to down in 5 waves off which 1 and 2 are done and now in 3rd to down will confirm if we break 5298 . 

• so B  5268-5459 = 191 ( 53% of A)

             C Going on in 5 waves
            C.1  5459-5298 = 161
            C.2  5298-5369 = 71 **** Going on  unless 5298 is broken to down
         

1. Or we have a B which is Flat / can be irregular flat for this nifty has to break 5459 and move past it  . We did open at 5369 but then are falling from there

• so B.a 5258-5459 = 191

               B.b 5459-5298= 161( 84% of B.a)
               B.c ** going on has to go close to lvls 5459 or Above it .
Then C will start to DOWN in 5 wave s...



todays ORB range is 5,315.05 - 5,369.45
break of 5315 we can be cautious and break of 5298 , we can go short .

Break of 5369 to up , may go long not too sure about it .

Trade plan for 29th feb

Broken ORB to down ...no positions presently
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
very simple plan for the day
5451 Week High ema.
5470 is Dhigh ema
trading above Pivot for the day , 5442 is the R2 for the day.Trading above that
At 10:00 close we are trading  above Hour high ema and 5 Hour close ema ..making the hour trend up and buy signal at 5444.
now
ORB for today is 5425-5459
On the break of 5459 to up I will buy with 20 points SL .

EOD 28th FEB

Candle patter is a bullish harami we got there today , indicating bullishness ..so more upside .

Also I see the Day trend is still down with a close below 5 Day ema and hour trend is now Up with close above Hour 5 Ema ..so I have to watch for weakness in hour trend or hour reaching OB with -ve divergence ..that would be clear signal to go short. As the day trend is down and Hour is Up , weakness in hour can be sold , Unless day trend turns up as well ....So for now keeping my eyes on Hour trend .
I have to rush to attend some work ...more detailed analysis EOD 29th Feb.

28th Feb

Hectic schedule today ...would not be able to update today