EOD 2nd March 2012

I have drawn 2 yellow lines to denote the range of Big bar that covers next four days candle ...so  any move past these two lvls will suggest the course prices may take .


Today prices resisted at the upper Blue trendline ...

A triangle under formation ?
 
or Are we in C ? with B over at 5459 off which 1 and 2 done 3 will unfold ..if that happens we will break 5324 first then 5310 then finally 5297 ...break of 5297 will suggest that sub 5200 lvls will be touched .

Day trend still DOWN with a close below 5 day ema .

moving averages alinged , giving no clear signal ...If prices from here move up and 20  starts to rise it will be fast rise and if cross over takes place then we go DOWN.

Also short term moving averages are converging on hour chart ...break of  either 5459 or 5298 will give good gains on that side .

Nifty Counts

Bullish Counts

A  5630-5268
B Going on
    a   5268-5459
    b   5459-5297
    c Going on
        i   5297-5392
       ii   4392-5324
       iii  Going on
( Invalidation prices Going below 5324 and further confirm it by going below 5297)


Bearish Counts

A 5630-5268
B  5268-5459
C Going on in 5 waves down
   i    5459-5297
   ii   5297-5392
  iii Going on down in 5 wave s...

Confirmation if prices go below 5297. Invalidation ===> if go above 5459.

Trade plan for 02 March

Looking at EW probablities ...
we see that move down from 5630 is a 5 wave , so we are in a ZZ
now we did ist set of 5 waves at 5268 making
A   5630 - 5268 = 362
From here two possibilities arise ...

1. either we finished B at 5459 in 3 waves and have started the C to down in 5 waves off which 1 and 2 are done and now in 3rd to down will confirm if we break 5298 . 

• so B  5268-5459 = 191 ( 53% of A)

             C Going on in 5 waves
            C.1  5459-5298 = 161
            C.2  5298-5369 = 71 **** Going on  unless 5298 is broken to down
         

1. Or we have a B which is Flat / can be irregular flat for this nifty has to break 5459 and move past it  . We did open at 5369 but then are falling from there

• so B.a 5258-5459 = 191

               B.b 5459-5298= 161( 84% of B.a)
               B.c ** going on has to go close to lvls 5459 or Above it .
Then C will start to DOWN in 5 wave s...



todays ORB range is 5,315.05 - 5,369.45
break of 5315 we can be cautious and break of 5298 , we can go short .

Break of 5369 to up , may go long not too sure about it .

Trade plan for 29th feb

Broken ORB to down ...no positions presently
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
very simple plan for the day
5451 Week High ema.
5470 is Dhigh ema
trading above Pivot for the day , 5442 is the R2 for the day.Trading above that
At 10:00 close we are trading  above Hour high ema and 5 Hour close ema ..making the hour trend up and buy signal at 5444.
now
ORB for today is 5425-5459
On the break of 5459 to up I will buy with 20 points SL .

EOD 28th FEB

Candle patter is a bullish harami we got there today , indicating bullishness ..so more upside .

Also I see the Day trend is still down with a close below 5 Day ema and hour trend is now Up with close above Hour 5 Ema ..so I have to watch for weakness in hour trend or hour reaching OB with -ve divergence ..that would be clear signal to go short. As the day trend is down and Hour is Up , weakness in hour can be sold , Unless day trend turns up as well ....So for now keeping my eyes on Hour trend .
I have to rush to attend some work ...more detailed analysis EOD 29th Feb.

28th Feb

Hectic schedule today ...would not be able to update today

EOD 27th Feb

We did not Hold the anticipated lvls at 5353 for 4th wave presently going on , Lets see the retracement lvls of this move from 4588 to 5630

Next level to watch is 38.2 % which comes to 5231 zone .



Moving Average:

With today's close at 5281 we close below the week 5 Ema at 5330 which brings the week TA in sell on rises as well  also indicating developing strength in momentum downwards...
So Hour trend is down , Day trend down and now week trend in sell on rises so now for rest 5 days , I will look for a bounce in day TF to short ..If Hour time frame gets to OB with -ve divergence anytime in this week then that would be opportunity to go short .

the Low ema for week is 5228 coinciding with 38.2% retracement 5231, that could be a place to go long.
20 Ma as has crossed below 100 Ma in day chart also the 5 ema has crossed below 10 ema today , Indicating  more downside to come .

In hour TF prices closed right  at 200 MA which is at 5282 .If we hold this tomorow 1st session  we may see some bounce . If not we are heading to 38.2% minimum.

Channels :

In this 4th we are trading in a very narrow channel ..below is a hour chart

Keeping a watch on upper trendline of this channel for a sure buy signal .

27th Feb 11:00 close

We are approching the level I planned to go long 5353 ...At the same time I see that 5 day ema presently at 5543 has crossed below 10 day ema 5545 . Which indicates Shorts should be entering so lettle skeptical about going long now at 5353 lvls . Just watching the index today and keying in hourly close .

Update at 12:00

Keeping a watch on 20 and 100 MAs ..for a  fast rise or more down side ...

27th Feb 2012

Prices and Moving Average:

Nifty closed at 5429 on last trading day which is below the trend Indicator 5 Dema ( 5484) . I infer the trend is down .

DLema is at 5457 . Only a close above this DLema will suggest weakening of downtrend presently on.
DHema at 5551 , Only a close above 5551 will suggest that 4th wave is over and we are in 5th to make another new high .

EW angle:

we did the ivth wave at 5341 of last 3rd wave from (4588-5630) , SO EW says we may end this 4th wave at the lvls closer to lvls of ivth wave of one degree less .Which comes to 5341 lvls . Refer to chart below..


Channels :

Breaking the green channel we can say that the 3rd wave up is done and we are in 4th wave down .
We are trading very near to the channel bottom ( the red channel )which come s in 5380-5400 zone .

As we move above the upper trendline of small blue channel that you see drawn for the 4th currently going on , we will be able to say that we are 5th wave UP.

Fibonacci Retracements:

Clearly as the close is below the DLema Momentum is DOWN.We see the 2nd wave of this move did a deep retracement so the 4th should do a shallow retracement which can be 23.6% or 38.2% .

23.6% comes close to the channel bottom 5385 lvls. Which suggests that we migth see a bounce on monday suggesting Wave B unfolding to up to be followed by wave C to down .

My Plan ;

Considering I have no positions at present ....
I will watch out for prices staying above or below the DLema ...If they close above the DLema 5457  at 10:00 close I will buy for target as DEma at 5484 and then DHema at 5551.

Or if we go down further ...will watch out for 5353  lvls ( this is where c=a for the 4th wave going on presently) and if we get there , will buy there .

24th Feb 2012

ORB ==> 5476-5521 ...break on either one of the side may give 20 points

5511 5ema
5494 Day Pivot
5482 DLema
5470 10 Day ema
5460 gap starts .

We are opening at channel bottom ..so some upside can be seen ...if not then a
Close Below 5470 weakness starts and below 5460 gets confirmed .
 watch out for ORB