EOD 5th Jan.2012

Not getting much time to devote here...as my understanding says tomorow may be planned in this way ...
Moving Averages :

Today for last 3 trading hours , upsides momentum got weak. The Close at 4750 was above Hour Low ema(4744) and Below HHema ( 4767).Similarly it was above DLema and below DHema...bringing sell on rises in picture.
12 and 26 mas almost at the same price lets see if 12 rises or drops from here ?
Hour close 5 ema 4755
Day clsoe 5 ema 4726
Week 5 close ema 4746
So a close above 4755 will keep the trend as up for all the three time frames .With a close at 4750 only the hour trend is down whereas day and week trend is up.

20MA Channel

At 3 pm close today this gave a "Sell" . But the very next hr the signal line seems to move up again .
now If we have prices closing below the Hour low ema tomorow in the first hour , I can "sell".
at the close price . Or else if this signal crosses and closes above Hour high ema then it will be ver bullish , as we see the signal line reversed inside the channel .

Divergence :
Clear -ve divergence present in the hour 9 rsi chart.

Both fast and slow macd are below the signal line , Fast is about to cross the zero line and slow has to travel some more distance . If this crosses the zero line to down then we are back in the monthly trend which is down if it reverses from near this zero line then further upsides .
All these only in hour TF , Day TF is intact showing more upsides.
Fast Fall :

If the 20 ma now falls ( Red) wrt to purple (200) Fast fall will come ...keep a watch on 20 wrt 200.
5 has started to fall already.

Channel:
Prices trading at lower trendline of hour chart .
Prices
If 4700 is broken then more weakness will come in prices .

All in all its a SELL
If the first hour clsoe is below the "then" hour low ema along with channel break to down  along with macd crossing the zero line to down along with prices closing below 5 ema of respective TF .

Look for prices to up , with Opening above pivot Along with maintaining the day low .

Jan 05 Obsevation

From 12:00 o'clock close the prices are closing above 5 Close ema , but have closed below 5 Hour Hema.
4770-4780 acting as stiff resistance .
50 100 and 200 sma s are not changing fo past 2-3 hours just the 5 and 20 sma are going down.

Is there a fall coming to support zone ?

Gap up Opening

With todays gap up opening , the channel is broken upside in which nifty was trading for last few days .

We did a buy at 4630 lvls yesterday , we will carry this position till the prices close below the Hour low ema or day low ema ...
At 11:30 the Hour low ema is 4679 so that is the stop loss for now the long position taken yesterday .
which gives at least 50 points .

EOD Jan 02 2012

Time Frame :
 Looking at hourly moving averages , Nifty closed above HHema at 4637 .Making hourly trend to reverse presently . One has keep a watch if this spreads to day frame.
Nifty did close above DLema (4629) If it closes above day 5 ema (4659) , ST reversal will be confirmed and will gain momentum if closes above DHema (4700) .
Nifty gave a aggresive buy signal today at 4630 lvls by closing above Hour 5 ema ( 4624) and then above Hour high ema ( 4633).To be safe , it has to close above day 5 ema for a buy.

50 hour sma has crossed 100 hr sma
Sir says
"In downtrend it is close above DLema suggesting a correction , and normally it extends 10-20 points above DHema."
Fib Retracements for the fall from 4801 to 4588 are
4638 23.6%
4669  .38%
4695  .50%
4720 .618%
4745  .736 .

Indicators :
On hourly charts stochastic is OS , Also in daily charts ss is OS. look for + ve divergence in hourly charts , if present then good time to go long.

Slow macd has just triggered signal line near 0 .
fast macd about to cross the zero line to up , ( it may turn down as well , if it does then it will be zero line reversal bearish ) other wise zero line crossover  bullish.

Channels:

Prices closed at the upper trendline of the channel nifty is trading in .watch out for a breakout with volumes .


I feel like a " buy " generated today at the close of the hour around4630 lvls .
Ideal SL= 4588 and Target 4700-4720 .
and then depending upon the momentum that time we can decide further.

Dec 30 10:00 am

Today 's price movements tell me to buy ...
Reasons
1) ORB( 4657-4677) broken upside .
2) Prices have moved above HL ema ( 4662) DLema(4671) and WLema (4672) .
3) Prices above Pivot(4662).
4) Indicators in OS region . so a bounce is possible.
So Buying at 4676 with SL= days's low 4657.

Breakout of channel nifty is trading in , Sar to go long hit will further confirm the direction

27th dec 3:00 pm

At 1 pm close , prices did close (4754)below the hour low ema (4763) and thus selling .

prices did go to 4723 low so 30 points gain till now Look at this set up of sma(s) and notice how  20 sma and 100 sma are now touching , if from this point if nifty falls making 20 sma fall( which was rising from last few days now) then this will be fast fall setup .

Another sell generated at 3:00 pm close when the 20 MA chart gave a sell signal to me .Prices move and close below the hour low ema . ( red line crosses the yellow line). 

I see Weekness

11:45 am
Prices have moved below Hour High ema at 4788 at 12 'oclock close let us see if it closses below this lvl .
Next is Dhema @ 4770 and then HLema @ 4766 developing is around 4769.
14 Rsi , Fast macd showing -ve divergence most of indicators at OB zone.

I will "SELL" if prices close below the hour low ema .

EOD 22 Dec.2011

Prices :

MHema	5321
	WHema	4941
		DHema	4726
			HHema	4712
			HLema	4675
		DLema	4619
	WLema	4689
MLema	4732

I see that All the high ema s are lined up in decending order . Low ema are all shuffled up .

As Hour Low ema has moved above the Day low ema I see that Hour trend is UP and its very close to being more that Week low ema . As that happens weekly the trend will be UP . The direction is UP.
 Monthly and weekly low emas are lined up alright .
For now I can say if the Green box continues to go above purple and blue the trend will be UP.
I will follow this everyday to see if I can derive something out of it .

Moving average Band

Above chart is 20 hour high and low band plotted n hourly chart with 5 and 10 MAs .

A buy signal is generated, As we can see here the signal line ( Red ) crossed the lower band(yellow) at about 4590 lvl and also at the same lvl  5 ma crossed 10 ma (Green) . 

At present is confortably placed well above 10 ma as a trailing stop loss we can keep a watch when 5 ma again crosses the 10 ma.Nifty has already travelled ~130 points after the signal was generated .

Trendline / Channels

The Slow macd has crossed the 0 line and moved up , indicating prices to go up .
Prices have broken the channel as well and now trading outside it.
There is +ve Divergence as well present in the chart .

Update at 2:30

Morning trade the stop loss was hit at 4594 and no profit no loss "capital preserved".

4555 an important support now , If we go below 4555 then we will be in iii rd wave of 'C' down .
ii look like a flat so it will get over around 4620 lvls .

20-Dec-2011

Update 12:15 All the short term MAs have converged at 4597 ...so keeping the SL at 4594 now to preserve the capital .

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WHema	4901
	DHema	4768
WLema	4697
	DLema	4659
		HHema	4619
		HLema	4585

Buying at Hlow ema for 1st target hhigh ema then dlema ( For Intraday Only) As Day wise the Trend is down till prices close above DLema .

Date	Position	Size	Entry	Sl	1st Lot exit	2nd Lot Exit	Exit	P/L
20-Dec-11	Buy	50	4590	4580