Time to sell?

My trading system where in I use

1)  5 hour high and 5 hour low moving averages band with closing price at the end of hour as signal , generated a sell after 3:00 pm candle .

2) The price has just come to lower channel line that you can see in the chart below , If the prices break this line , then as per my understanding we are done with 'B' and are in 'C' to down in 5 waves .This 'B' retraced the move labeled 'A' from 5400- 4639 near to the Golden Ratio at 5108 .

3) Hour slow Macd generated a sell signal .

4) Prices closed below Hour high ema at 5088 , H 5 ema 5078 and Hour low ema 5056 .

-ve Divergence was also confirmed by prices moving below the 5 ema .

Now the above analysis is only on Hour data , one has to check the daily data as well . Day High ema at 5026 still protected and then Dema at 4997 , once these get broken then nifty can drift lower.

4th wave scenario rejected

Sir says ,
Most 4th waves break the trendline briefly and then start their 5th wave. Accordingly, if you connect the 1st(5201) and 4639(suspected 3rd) and draw a parallel line from the 2nd(5317), Nifty has broken out of it 3 days ago and staying well above it. For this reason alone, the 4th wave scenario is rejected.

There are 2 possibilities:

"X" done at 5400(5382) and in the next downmove of "abc", "a" done at 4639, the "b" is on. If it exceeds 5223(80%), then the alternate view:

"X"'s abc to be read as:
a: 4720 to 5400(5382)
b: 5400 to 4639(Irregular)
c: 4639 to .....(Could clear 5223 to 5350 or 5400 & more)

Below mentioned Option 1 and Option 2 get rejected .

Nifty as I see on 3rd Dec 2011

From High of 6338 , Labeling the move to 4639 as follows
W- 6338-5177
X-  5177-5944
Y-  5944-4720
XX 4720-5400
Z (going on)

As per EW presently I see 3 options in play.


Option 1
Another zigzag in play (A, B , C) making the whole correction from 6338 a triple zz.
A going on
   1. 5400-5205=195
   2. 5205-5326 =121
   3.  5326- 4639=687
   4. 4639-5062*
Right now 4 has reached exact .618 *1 ( The golden ratio).5 should start down I feel , to complete A in 5 waves down.This 5 should be equal to 1 in time and magnitude .
Invalidation point would be to enter in the territory of wave 1 , that is to go above 5205.

Option 2

We see 3 waves presently from 5400 down ,
so it can be a flat correction too as we see 3 waves up to 5062 making it (3 3 5)
so now 5 waves to unfold DOWN.

Option 3

If we go above 5205 then probably we are in a larger flat towards 5400 . Move from 5400-4639 is a  3 wave move.