EOD 5th Dec 2012

Back after a long vacation .


EW wise
Wave C from 4770 In 5 waves ..

 

 

And now the last wave 5 from 5548 in 5 waves ...

As I see the hour charts -ve divergence is quite prominently seen between the points 5899 (iii) and top made today at 5918 (v)indicating the 4th wave is on after which final 5th might unfold.

Also to keep in mind is this -ve divergence is seen in hour charts  when indicators are OB in day charts..

 

If we see -ve divergence is developing in day chart as well .It holds or negates , only time will tell giving us clues on its way.

 

 

 

I could only do this much HW .
 

EOD 11th OCt

Closed at 5708

 



 

 Clearly hour trend turns up with momentum and it issued a buy at 5696 at 2:00 , and at 3 close 5-10 +ve crossover also seen .

Channel:
There was a channel breakout as well , This was earlier in the day than the above buy signal .

Moving Average:

5Dema at 5697 , so day trend up , now to sustain this up move we need to cross 5627 ( DHema ) and close above it .
We took support at Wema at 5633 .
On day chart , 5 and 10 ema are poised for a Fast rise ,

Fibonacci Retracements:

FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE  From   To   Fall/ Rise  0.236%        0.38                 0.50 0.618% 0.736% 0.80% 5815 5637       178    5,679    5,705             5,726    5,747      5,768      5,779 5637 5720        (83)    5,700    5,688             5,679    5,669      5,659      5,654

we have done 38% today and close to 50%  , Anything more than 80% at 5779 would mean more upsides .

and Falling below 5654 would mean more downside.

Chart pattern :

It was a Falling wedge , which was forming . This pattern is considered bullish and can be used for indication of a bottom formation .

 

EOD 10th Oct 2012

Close ( 5652) Well below the DEma ( 5692) and below the DLema ( 5674). Trend is down with momentum .
We have a sell on day TF now with Sell on hour TF .

Is that a Head and a shoulder pattern ? We will know tomorrow for sure .

+ve divergence developing on hour TF and we have closed at support lvl of 5650 .
Support with +ve divergence may give a upmove ..

Week trend is up , If we get a buy in hour TF now , with Weak trend up , it could be valid buy if it triggers in Day TF also following the hour TF .

HLema at 5655
Dlema at 5674.

Hour ema s , 20 and 100 are right at 5690 , tomorrow will tell if there is -ve cross Or a fast rise ...

 

EOD 9th Oct. Indecision !!

EW on hour TF .Looks like in a falt correction 3 3 5 because we see 3 waves down from 5815 high  , from 5815 off which "a" done at 5666 now "b" is on . This count gets invalidated if we break 5666.

 Candl

 

 On hour TF we have closed right at 5Hema  (5705), below HHema (5714)and above HLema(5695) . Same in Day TF
Closing is below 5 Dema (5712) , trend is down  but as the closing is above DLema(5687) , the downward momentum is not present.

I think any move beyond 5715 and closing above it may indicate that we are in B.c of Flat to lvls close to 5815 ...
and Breaking of yesterday's low at 5666 , would indicate that more lows .


Candle stick pattern :
We may call this a Spinning top which along with yesterday's candle makes a " Bearish Hamrami"
Spinning top indicates indecision .

 

EOD 8th Oct

So finally the -ve divergence is confirmed with prices going down below 5 Dema and closing also confirming the loss of  momentum and bearish engulfing also confirmed.

Down move from 5815 is a 3 wave structure till now , 
from 5815
a 5815-5706=109
b 5706-5752=46( 42.2%)
c* going on T1=.618(a)=67 pts =5684 ( We have already done this today ) T1=a=5643 If we go beyond 1.618 % of a downside then we will have to count 5 waves from 5815 down .

We presently have sell on day TF as  well along with hour TF .
 

EOD 5th Oct 2012

Let me start with 9 RSI day chart .. where I see the -ve divergence has formed well and showed its effects today .

 

Macd Histogram divergence

 

 

But again we have closed at 5747,  above 5 day ema at 5735 .
Trend still intact , though momentum is not there now , with a close below day high ema .

Safe shorts would be only below a close of 5 dema .


Candle pattern wise we have a Bearish Engulfing today , which is there after a good uptrend along with weakening of momentum . Candle formed today engulfs the shadow also ,

Confirmation in the form of further weakness needed on Monday . On day charts SS has not crossed the trigger line yet , with a cross of trigger line , shorts would be safer.

Probably it may come with a close below 5 day ema .


Retracements for todays fall from 5810 to 5706 are

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5810	5706	104	5,731	5,746	5,758	5,770	5,783	5,789

Prices going above 80% would mean strength ...



we have done close to 50 % today at 5758.

All in all  , A bearish engulfing + losing momentum on Day TF + -ve divergnece persisting on day charts .
 

EOD 4th Oct 2012

-ve divergence persisting in Hour TF and still developing in day TF as follows

 

Day TA is OB and -ve divergence presently , last RSI high at 97.4 , if with prices making HH RSI goes above 97.4 then -ve divergence vanishes . If not now is no time for shorts one has to wait it out . I am not available tomorow to trade .If it comes then I will miss it .

5 Day ema at 5729 , weakness only below this . Other #s to watch
Today's low at 5751.55 and Day high ema at 5747.

Presently prices showing no weakness.
EW

Accordingly we still have (iv) (v) to do within iii , where iii will be over and then iv and v to complete the 5th wave . That would complete the 5 waves and then correction . IFF during all this process the -ve divergence persists with Day TA , OB we will get a golden opportunity to short for good gains . As the correction will be for the move from 5216 to the new high of 'C'.


 

Divergence

Divergence trades , no wonder give good gains ...but may take long to develop . Live example is what we are seeing now on charts .
Posting a hour chart look for over a week now this -ve divergence is persisting ...

And now look at this Day chart with 9 Rsi ...

We see how a divergence is taking time to form in day charts ...Last reading on RSI was 97.4 , prices have already made a higher high , its time to watch if RSI also makes a higher high or it turns before that . If it does that then this  divergence will get confirmed in day charts .

Piyush Sharda ji at Just nifty explains it as

" divergence are decrease in momentum. decrease in speed if u talk in parlance of a car. decrease in speed doesnt mean it will reverse. it can stop and go back in same direction again and make one more divergence.if a week -ve divergence has to develop just think how many hour divergence has to fail for that. if month divergence develops in 2003-08 market many day and week divergence will fail "


 

4th Oct 2012

-ve divergence persisting in the hour charts ..

 

Prices making  higher tops and macd is making lower highs as seen in the charts . -ve divergence persisting since  5650 as marked in the charts .But prices are maintaing the close near the highs and above Day Ema and DHEma ..I have already lost  a few points trying to trade this divergence  ...Now no shorting till we get a close below DEma presently at 5699.

21 Hr Ema at 5714.

34 Hr Ema at 5700.

Hour low ema I feel is susptible to whipsaw , so putting my trust with 21 / 34 hr ema and Day Ema .

Below 5700 weakness and confirmation of -ve divergence . One more Confirmation could be Fast Macd crossing zero line on Hour TF .

3/10/2012

Closed at 5719.

At  HHema ( 5719)

Hour trend up  .

Above Dhema ( 5705) ,  Day trend up with momentum .

Now we have First Hour low ema at 5707 and Day high ema at 5705 . SO only a close below these lvls would bring weakness in price.

-ve Divergence in hour charts still persisting.

All I understand is 5735 is resistance presently .
and 5700-5710 support.

5Dema being at 5683.