4th Oct 2012

-ve divergence persisting in the hour charts ..

 

Prices making  higher tops and macd is making lower highs as seen in the charts . -ve divergence persisting since  5650 as marked in the charts .But prices are maintaing the close near the highs and above Day Ema and DHEma ..I have already lost  a few points trying to trade this divergence  ...Now no shorting till we get a close below DEma presently at 5699.

21 Hr Ema at 5714.

34 Hr Ema at 5700.

Hour low ema I feel is susptible to whipsaw , so putting my trust with 21 / 34 hr ema and Day Ema .

Below 5700 weakness and confirmation of -ve divergence . One more Confirmation could be Fast Macd crossing zero line on Hour TF .

3/10/2012

Closed at 5719.

At  HHema ( 5719)

Hour trend up  .

Above Dhema ( 5705) ,  Day trend up with momentum .

Now we have First Hour low ema at 5707 and Day high ema at 5705 . SO only a close below these lvls would bring weakness in price.

-ve Divergence in hour charts still persisting.

All I understand is 5735 is resistance presently .
and 5700-5710 support.

5Dema being at 5683.

1/10/2012

Price wise , unless we close first below 5699 ( HLema ) , no momentum in hour trend which is down presently .

Day trend is up with momentum with a close above 5696( DHema ).

Week Trend stays up and so is the month .

Shorts only when , we close below the hour low ema with a 5-10 -ve crossover . Hour charts showing -ve divergence with peaks 5720 and 5735.
confirmation comes with a close below 5565 is Day ema , weakness only below this .

EW wise , I feel we have done 5 waves at 5720 and are in an irregular correction presently , with 'b' shooting over 5 today at 5735. We will see a 'c' wave if we are in irregular flat from 5720 , which should take us below 5638 . Indication of this possibility will come , with weakness in price as stated above.

Divergence : Hour charts showing -ve divergence with peaks 5720 and 5735.

Indicators :

macd ( 34 5 5) on hour TF has given a sell today . Candle pattern wise , there  is a stooting star today .

Indicators , EW , Candle pattern , developing -ve divergence on hour charts.showing bearish possibility  , But the prices are firm and are not showing any weakness in Day TF , Though they are down in hour TF , but are closing above Hour low ema . The min requirement is to close below the HLema which is presently at 5699.

26/9/2012

Day chart has a Doji today , Whole day it was range bound , I did short the market today as prices closed below Hour Low ema , at 12 noon . But then they decided to take support at 5655-5650 zone and bounced . SL was channel top which was first around 5695 and which slowly moved down , Finally there was Dip to 5666 during the last hour and I closed my position there with a loss of 7 points , Phew !!

Did not carry any positions as a corrective is going on ..and moreover I am not available tommorow .

What do the charts say to Me , here it is ...
We  are in corrective move presently ,
Now Q is whether we are correcting the move from

5216 to 5720 ( 5 waves over at 5720) or move from 5333 to 5720 ( assuming only 3 waves done at 5720 and one more top above 5720 as 5th wave )  ...lets look at the Fib retracements ...

If it is correction for 5216 to 5720 then this present correction should me more than what 2 and 4 have done

So more than 113 comes to below 5607 and the path can take form of a Flat , zz or a triangle.
Fib ret can be seen in the table below .

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5537	5720	(183)	5,677	5,650	5,629	5,607	5,585	5,574
5333	5720	(387)	5,629	5,573	5,527	5,481	5,435	5,410
		-	-	-	-	-	-	-

5216

5720

(504)

5,601

5,528

5,468

5,408

5,349

5,317

 And as per option 2 if only 3 waves are done at 5720 then we are correcting the 3rd wave which started form 5333.Again since this is correcting the whole move from 5333 , then the correction should be more than subwave ii and iv which again comes to below 5607.

 

Price wise we have closed above 5 Dema at 5637 and Also above 5 D hema at 5666 , so day trend is up with momentum .
Hour trend is facing correction  , but have closed above Hlema at 5667 . So hour trend down without momentum .
 Price wise no weakness .
BUT
-ve divergence still there in hour charts , with macd ( 34 5 5) in sell mode . This sell will negate if this macd shows a +ve crossover.

5 sma and 20 sma are poised interestingly ,  it may give a Fast rise / Fast fall .

Have a nice day !
 

25th Sep 2012

We closed at 5669.6

Hour trend down with a close below hour 5 ema ( 5677) , hour low ema at 5669 , a close below this would bring down momentum in hour TF  .

Day high ema at 5648 5 day ema far below at 5618

-ve divergence prominent on hour charts ...with a sell triggered today with a cross over of macd ( 34 5 5). But again , Day high ema is at 5648 unless we close atleast below that ,this is just a correction IMHO.

Still vth of 5th pending . lets see if that comes next trading session , or more weakness

Ganpati Bappa Morya!

EOD 21 sep

Hour trend is up  with momentum .

I see a -ve divergence in hour charts as well .

When we see the 5th wave fractals From low of 5534, one last leg ( 5th of 5th ) seems to be remaining . Did short during the day , but then closed the position with 20 points loss today itself . Wanted to carry the position , looking at
 channel top , Hour TA being OB as well as Day TA,   -ve divergence and a pin bar candle on hour charts at 1 but did not have courage to carry the position .Will wait for Monday open , If we go higher than 5720 , with -ve divergence in 5 mins charts then will short again , while mainting the divergence in hour charts  .



 

Tata Motors

17th Sep , Shooting star after an uptrend with good vols , so next day a down candle confirms the
pattern .Then a down move .

Also a DT at 283 . Prices right at 61.8 %  .

My Take : If we get a down candle 18th Sep , then a good opportunity to short.
 

18/9/2012

There is a -ve divergence seen in day charts as below , with the tops at 5631 and 5650

During the day , hour Macd ( 34 5 5) gave a sell signal as seen in the chart below .

 

We have closed below HHema , so Hour charts are showing weakness along with a sell that Macd ( 34 5 5)  gave .
Day Trend still up , All these gap ups have made the prices come far away from Day ema at 5507 .

On Auspicious occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi I will be little busy with other things so updates will not be regular in coming days .
 

EW from 6339

From high of 6339

 

 

 

From the high of 6339 we did WXY at 4531

 

 From 4531 ,

 First we have to see this wave from 4531 as a 3 or 5 wave ....It does not look like a 5 wave , but its impulsive nature makes me believe that it is a 5 wave .

 so here is the chart