Tata Motors

17th Sep , Shooting star after an uptrend with good vols , so next day a down candle confirms the
pattern .Then a down move .

Also a DT at 283 . Prices right at 61.8 %  .

My Take : If we get a down candle 18th Sep , then a good opportunity to short.
 

18/9/2012

There is a -ve divergence seen in day charts as below , with the tops at 5631 and 5650

During the day , hour Macd ( 34 5 5) gave a sell signal as seen in the chart below .

 

We have closed below HHema , so Hour charts are showing weakness along with a sell that Macd ( 34 5 5)  gave .
Day Trend still up , All these gap ups have made the prices come far away from Day ema at 5507 .

On Auspicious occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi I will be little busy with other things so updates will not be regular in coming days .
 

EW from 6339

From high of 6339

 

 

 

From the high of 6339 we did WXY at 4531

 

 From 4531 ,

 First we have to see this wave from 4531 as a 3 or 5 wave ....It does not look like a 5 wave , but its impulsive nature makes me believe that it is a 5 wave .

 so here is the chart

 

 

14/9/2012

First thing that comes to my mind is ,

Did we do a double top today at 5448 ?

Closed below HHema , with Hour TA in OB zone . indicates a pause for sure , will it get converted into correction ?? We will know if we get a close below 5Ema on hour TF ( 5433) and then a close below HLema ( 5426) .

Hour charts are showing weakness , MACD ( 34 5 5) has triggered a sell . also slow macd and fast macd presently below the trigger line .
But on hour charts SS is still above 80 mark . This has to come down that lvl if any downmove

50 MA has given a bullish cross on hour charts with 100 and 200 MA .

On day charts we have a Doji right on the blue TL , indicating indicision ...But weakness on day charts only with a close below 5401 DHema .IF we close above this blue TL then next resistance would be the Red TL and also the possibility of being in 'e'.

 

Day charts are developing a divergence as seen below,

 

 

 

 

All in all , Hour charts showing weakness but no weakness in day charts . Giving importance to higher TF untill we close below Hour low ema or Day high ema , we are still going UP.

 

Important announcements tonight , I am biased towards a bearish view. 

 



 

13/9/2012

-ve divergence is  invalidated in the hour charts Macd (  34 5  5 ).
14 rsi and fast macd still showing the divergence .


Clear strength seen in hour charts , day charts , week charts and month charts. .

Trending Up with momentum in all TFs
  .
5448 last top , and 5430-5450  major resistance ahead , lets see how prices behave around that level .

Today's closing also bullish , closed almost at day high 5431.

When indicators are at extreme reading ,then watch out for ORB ,it is a good guide .Hour TA is OB ,I will keep a watch on ORB, day TA started to form a -ve divergence. Keeping a watch on Macd(34 5 5) , divergence and orb

Also 5458 is 80% of fall from 5630 to 4770 .
 

12/9/2012

Sir says ,

During an uptrend , gap downs are good points to enter longs , this is not a rule but a guideline and how true it held today ,
ORB helps in this method .
We are trending up and there was gap down till close ema or low ema  , which could have used to enter long .
ORB broke upside , and that is a good confirmation for the trade to be taken at 5348.

I was also looking at 123 pattern , and it did give a long signal at 5354 around 11:20 in the morning  , which was good too .

 

 

My eyes are seeing a -ve divergence developing in hour charts , One has to watch of any negation  ...

 

 

On Day charts we have a nice bullish candle today.so -ve divergence on hour charts may very well be nagated next trading session.

Slow macd on day charts has turned up just above zero , and has crossed the signal line , giving indications of more upside .

anything above 5402 is More Strength as 5402 is 80% of Last fall from 5448-5216

 

All in all Presently we are Trending up in all TFs we have closed above high emas in all TFs  .


BUT , a correction is on cards EW indicates so am keeping the fibb retracemnts of move 5216-5393 handy incase it comes.
Cheers !
 

9/11/2012

Hour TA is OB ,
34 5 5 , has given a sell in hour TF .
Slow macd on day charts turned up just touching the zero line indicating bullish  , but has not triggered yet .
Day Rsi , has more room to OB .further up possible.
Hour TA and Day TA are not giving any clear signal to me presently .

on sidelines .
 

10th Sep 2012

	FIBO. RETRACEMENT TABLE
From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.00236	0.38	0.5	0.00618	0.00736	0.008
5449	5216	233	5270.988	5304.54	5332.5	5360.041	5387.488	5402.4

 

Channel :

We have broken the downtrending channel cearly and have been now in upward channel ,
this is a very steep channel , will have to wait for some more time to draw it ,

Retracement s :

As we see , 5360 is 61.8 % of last fall from 5448 to 5216. we have done 5366 on sat.
and 5402 is 80% , So clearly anything above 5402 is clear strength.

And one trade that I can see presently is short close to 5387 with 5403 as SL .


Ew wise from 5216 we have done 5 waves ..as

Indicators :

Hour TA has reached OB region with last 2 days action .


50 and 20 MA are at the same value , they have been giving FF and FR .This time is it fast fall ? Only time will tell .

 

My inference is ,
We are close to completion of 5 waves , so a correction is on cards . Gap may act as support if there is any correction . Breaking 5309 would be the first sign . If not then 5402 must be broken for further upsides .

Day TF has one strong possibility as

 

Infosys

Last close 2487

 

TA which says Bullish ,

 

Week trend Up with momentum , with a close above WHema 2434.

Day High ema 2430 , Hour high ema 2484

Indicates trending Up .

 

EW counts

from 2101 Up  ,

 

a 2101-2483=382

b 2483-2332=151
possibility of c on in 5 waves Target can be ,

c 2332-** (  2714 if =A,) ( 2568 if = .618*A) Bullish

 

SS turning up from lvls close to 20  Bullish

 

Macd(  34 5 5) turned up near to 0 lvls Bullish with a + crossover . Macd Histogram also showing momentum .

 

Some charts to support my observations .....

Bearish Observations :

I see -ve divergence developing in hour TF
Hour TA is OB .
Gap ahead which may act as resistance .
If I join the top 3469 to recent low and Draw a || el line tangential to extreme move between the move , we are right at it presently , If we cross this and prices trade above this then this would act as good support . If not then down again .

 

EOD 5th Sep 2012

Yesterday EOD the observations indicated towards a green day today and we open Gap down  and then after some consolidation , touch the day channel bottom .

I feel I missed looking at the week TF , which was down and did not take into consideration that it could assert itself .

So The Gap filled at 5216 . And we closed 5225.75
And touched the day channel bottom ,
Also on hour charts I saw a Hammer ( 1:00 O'clock candle) .
A Hammer at day channel bottom on hour charts  , good to take long calls with SL 5216 .
But Prices were trading below HLema DayLema and WLema . So resisted my self .

Presently the Hour channel resistance is at 5270 and
Day channel support at 5210

only on break of either of these two I will know where prices want to go for this month.
Divergence :

+ve Divergence still there in the hour charts .

Day TA is OS .

But Divergences fail when the higher TF does not align with the direction of divergence , Here Week TF is red and we have +ve  divergence in hour charts . So better to wait out for the Hour channel top to be taken out before any Longs .

34 hour- HI lo still says to be on the short side .

5 and 20 MA gave another fast fall today . This is the 4th time this combination has given FF since the top 5448.

EOD today , I feel bears have upper hand . Lets see how we open up tommorow.