EOD 5th July 2012

Chart Pattern :

We have a Bullish Engulfing today in day charts . With that I also see that we have not yet broken out of the upper trendline as seen in the chart below

Trading 5th July 2012

At 9:45 AM ,

We opened close to previous day close and
ORB says 5289-5302.

Also developing hour hour low ema is at 5289 .
30 min ema is also at 5287.

Support for the day lies at 5287 lvls and if we break this , then shorts can be taken with day high as SL.

Yesterdays high is 5307 breaking this lvl would suggest some upside so Longs can be taken with day low as SL .

Drawing TLs on different TFs and using that as trailing SL helps


P.S.I am not trading today , due to some personal work  .

Intraday 3rd July 2012

Presently we are trading with in the red channel on hour charts . The top of the channel acting as resisting TL .

Intraday day nifty spot charts looks weak as it is trading in a down channel since morning .

5287 NS holding as support .


Today morning when nifty made a lower high at 5311 and started going further down  ..I drew a trendline from the tops 5317 and 5311 . Took a short position keeping the TL as guide . Came out of the trade as my trailing SL hit.

2nd July 2012

Spent my weekend reading " The  complete guide to Day trading " by Markus Heitkoetter .
After I finished  reading one thing that I can't seem to forget is " A monkey can enter a trade , but money is made ( and Lost) when a Trader exits the trade " .

It seems all these books are written just for me .

Before one starts to trade one has to know
First and foremost is to determine the Trend . When the trend is Up , avoid selling and vise versa.
Make small but consistant profits .
One HAS to close the trade if either Target Hits or SL hits. NO staying on for a bit longer.
Discipline and Patience is the KEY to success.
Keep your trading as simple as possible .

having said that lets get to the charts ....
Following is the day chart with trendlines drawn from recent low of 4770

Today whole day , we traded in a very narrow range .
Moving averages were telling one story and EW was telling another .
different methods were not complimenting but contradicting each other so stayed away and was just watching the screen and where prices are going ..

There was this point for short trade when nifty touched day high was not able to sustain , unfortunately it came during my break from terminal between 12:45 to 1:15 .
Did take a short trade and made some tiny points , which did not stay with me for long as I shorted again when it broke the low and came out with a min loss as it broke the channel I drew touching the highs today.

Tomorow is a holiday for me , see you all on Friday.

Trading 27th June 2012

I updated the EW counts page yesterday ...Kindly check that for todays trading lvls .

http://mytradingfile.blogspot.in/p/ew-20th-june-2012.html

EOD 26th June 2012

Still in range . 5090-5100 is very strong support. We may go up from here to the channel top as long as 5090-5100 is not broken.

EOD 25th June

Day close 5115

How does one decide the trend is going on up or down ?
Momentum Indicators tell us that by closing above or below the 5 ema of that TimeFrame.

So looking at the ema s to gauge the momentum we find the

Day Trend turns down yet again , by closing below 5 day ema ( 5125) .
with Hour trend turning down with 3:00 close and by EOD we also have 5 ema crossing below 10 ema.

hour low ema at 5132 we have closed well below that now next thing to look for is day low ema poised at 5089 , we may see again a range bound day if we take support at this low ema Or see trending move down if we break this lvl.

This zone 5085-5100 acted as a strong support in recent times and is to be watched anything below 5085 would be favoring shorts .

Divergence :

Day chart indicators are showing -ve divergence with 9 rsi and fast macd .


Indicators :
HOur chart SS turns down from OB and breaks the LTL.

All the above says more down move , this downmove can take support at previous support 5085-5105 .
If we break this support then more downside  .

Intraday 25th June

Opening at 5159.

which is more than Previous day high and also more than Previous day close .
We also opened above HHema ...Clearly bias for the day +ve .

At 10:00 we maintained Day open as Day low  ...so break of ORB (  5159-5185) to  upside , should be indication of Long and less risky trade with day Low as SL.
Contradiction to this is to keep in mind the BIg picture , where in day charts 5190 is important number being recent swing High and channel top on hour charts .

that has been acting as stiff resistance till  now .
Along with this I see -ve  divergence in intraday charts ..which is holding me back to take long calls.

 1;30
Prices taking support at yesterday's high ...I feel its a good place to go long . There my SL pops below day low 5159.

Keeping it simple.

Last close 5146 .

clearly month , week , day , hour trend is up.

Day TF says
5152 is Day high ema , which may act as resistance and if price s cross this and trade above it , then will act as support and will be a good zone to go long as Day trend is up as we are closing above 5 Day ema .


Hour TF says ,

Also we closed  just below the hour high ema , and if Prices resist here at 5148 lvls then we may again see a range bound day . Between high and low ema of this HOur TF


So depending upon where the prices are opening , one can gauge , if it will be a trending day ( we open above hour high , and day high bias of day will be positive and if we maintain that as the low of the day or take support in the zone 5140-5160) .
Or we are for a range bound day if we open below the zone and maintain that as high of day .

anyhow 5140-5160 is the zone , and prices opening above or below it will give further cues.

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Over the weekend , I was looking at day charts , and observed that days when Day open is either the high of day or low of day ...those days chances of successful trade is high on  orb break .
Like if Day open = Day high ( ORB high), and ORb breaks the low then " shorts" are more likely to survive and vice versa.
I don't know if this really works , I would like to watch this over next weeks to come to see if this works .

I truly feel that looking at old charts and then thinking I can figure out where to go long and short and all this is easy , but when  Live market is unfolding it is altogether a different story .

All the best to all of you out there , who want to make it "Small" here :) like me.