Intraday 25th June

Opening at 5159.

which is more than Previous day high and also more than Previous day close .
We also opened above HHema ...Clearly bias for the day +ve .

At 10:00 we maintained Day open as Day low  ...so break of ORB (  5159-5185) to  upside , should be indication of Long and less risky trade with day Low as SL.
Contradiction to this is to keep in mind the BIg picture , where in day charts 5190 is important number being recent swing High and channel top on hour charts .

that has been acting as stiff resistance till  now .
Along with this I see -ve  divergence in intraday charts ..which is holding me back to take long calls.

 1;30
Prices taking support at yesterday's high ...I feel its a good place to go long . There my SL pops below day low 5159.

Keeping it simple.

Last close 5146 .

clearly month , week , day , hour trend is up.

Day TF says
5152 is Day high ema , which may act as resistance and if price s cross this and trade above it , then will act as support and will be a good zone to go long as Day trend is up as we are closing above 5 Day ema .


Hour TF says ,

Also we closed  just below the hour high ema , and if Prices resist here at 5148 lvls then we may again see a range bound day . Between high and low ema of this HOur TF


So depending upon where the prices are opening , one can gauge , if it will be a trending day ( we open above hour high , and day high bias of day will be positive and if we maintain that as the low of the day or take support in the zone 5140-5160) .
Or we are for a range bound day if we open below the zone and maintain that as high of day .

anyhow 5140-5160 is the zone , and prices opening above or below it will give further cues.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Over the weekend , I was looking at day charts , and observed that days when Day open is either the high of day or low of day ...those days chances of successful trade is high on  orb break .
Like if Day open = Day high ( ORB high), and ORb breaks the low then " shorts" are more likely to survive and vice versa.
I don't know if this really works , I would like to watch this over next weeks to come to see if this works .

I truly feel that looking at old charts and then thinking I can figure out where to go long and short and all this is easy , but when  Live market is unfolding it is altogether a different story .

All the best to all of you out there , who want to make it "Small" here :) like me.

22nd June 2012

With yesterdays close

Month trend turned up , Week is up , day is up  , now when we had weakness in hour TF in the morning , and when after 2:00 close when hour trend turned up then that could have taken as a valid signal to go long .

Now trading at channel toop  tells me correction can be there today and if we break this channel then up we go .

it is very true that all this analysis is Ok , but It really is worth , when I  put it in practical and get results  . Thats when I will be satisfied with what I am doing .

Right now on sidelines .

Trading 21st June 2012

Update at 1:30
Now I did take a short today , as we completed 5 waves from 5142-5095 and started retracing the move

Fib retracements were ...

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5142	5095	47	5,106	5,113	5,119	5,124	5,130	5,133

Prices bounced to 5122 ( almost golden ratio ) and started to decline...Wanted to short right at 5120 , but kept thinking and gathered the courage to short at 5110 keeping the SL= 5134 reason being ,  As we can see the 80% is 5133 so above that means the ew count was wrong .

Kept holding on to the position till 1;30 was in a way happy to see that it had broken the day low ..
Did not want to  loss a single penny so moved my SL to 5105 NF . Idealy as it made another low of day SL should have been 5112 marked in red line ,

Also prices closed below hour low ema at 1:30 closing .
But then NF started trading at premium , and my 5105 NF hit ...so am out of position without any loss .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If Prices move again in the same range as yesterdays , it will be no trade zone for me .

We closed below hour high ema , for down momentum we need to close below hour low ema (5113)
then and then  only it will gain strength to go down in hour TF

Day TF we have DLema at 5063 which is way below the prices at present , so lets look at 5 ema (5100)...so prices need to close below this for any downward direction .

For me Short If prices close below hour low ema accompained by close below 5 ema . And to be on safer side break below 5096 ( ORB Low) and if they break 5087 then a sure shot sell .

For me Long if and only if prices trade above 5144 a strong resistance as seen in last couple of days ..

important #s for 20th June

5090 is Dema , Hour ema and also the pivot for 20th june Trading above or below it , can be strength or weakness.If we close above 5134 tomorow then week and day trend will become in uptrending mode.

Following can further gauge the momemtum ...

EOD 19th June 2012

Today was the day , I was determined to earn something out of the market .
And market on other hand was determined not to let me win , I did catch the bottom and top today but unfortunately in the opposite direction of market and my trades resulted in loss today .
Presently reading Frost and pretcher again ...to understand EW more and more .

They say trade a small qty , so that you can be in the race for long time ....me doing this correctly ..trading only mininifty.

EOD 18th June

Candle stick pattern

Bearish Engulfing is what we have today ..which not only engulfs yesterday's candle but  engulfs last 3 days candle .
 Also we call today as an Outside day .

channel
Today we broke the hour channel at 5069 , and touching low at 5041.

Momentum
Momentum is clearly down as we close below hour low ema ,
with todays close we have
Hour trend down ( 5 -10 bearish crossover happened )
Day trend down ( 5-10 crossover not yet taken place . )

Divergence

-ve Divergence played out well today .

Candle stick , channel , momentum all indicate a lot of weakness in prices .

Hi - Lo 34 hour ema says one should have shorted at 5080 with 5100 SL at 12:00 today .

I still have to work on EW labels ...which help a lot , and once a wise soul told me , is the only thing which never fails .

Intraday 18th June

breaking 5069 todays low would be first indication of further downside .

Looking at the chart below we find that

Observations for 18th June

Candle pattern :

We have a white Marubojo , indicating bullishness .
And EW wise accompnained by 3rd wave . more upsides.

Trend in different TFs saying
Hour trend up
Day trend Up
Week is up
Today's closing makes the month trend up as well .

Closed above mondays pivot 5118

Prices indicating only upsides from here ...

Indicators
Indicators on hour chart are showing -ve divergence .

Price clusters ( support / resistance)

It becomes very important to cross this5140-5150 zone for now and then  5170-5190 zone for further upsides .

Fib retracements .

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
5630	4770	860	4,973 Done	5,097 Done	5,200	5,302	5,403	5,458

15th June Intraday

9:45 AM

I see Open and Low same so far in a 30 min candle .
ORB 5069-5096
watching for ORB break with Macd crossover , Ss Divergence .
My trade Plan for the day .

If 5096 breaks with +ve divergence in ss and macd crossover , then BUy with 20 ots SL . Also 5084-5095 is the resistance zone above which prices may further go up .
also 123 strategy calls for a buy on break of 5096 to up.

IF 5069 breaks with -ve divergence in ss and macd crossover then sell with 20 pts sl.