obervations for 15th june

Hour TA remained down for the whole day and spread accross on Day TA , as prices closed below 5 Dema making the hour and day trend down now .

we have closed below pivot (5077) as well.

On hour chart we are at channel bottom , breaking this bottom trendline leads to more downside and a bounce is also possible ( for that price will start to close above hour low ema ) For now  prices closing below hour low ema and also below 5 day ema / and 5DHema shows weakness.
On day chart , its evening star pattern indicating bearishness.
Technicals show weakness all over .

retracement of 4770-5144 are

From	To	Fall/ Rise	0.236%	0.38	0.50	0.618%	0.736%	0.80%
4770	5144	(374)	5,056 Done	5,002	4,957	4,913	4,869	4,845

                                               

14th June 10:00 close

1st hour candle Open and low the same at 5105

We close above hourLema (5108) at 10.00 Inference , nifty may move to close ema and then hema as well .
Also closed above Dhema (5109)
Orb was 5127-5105  : which is not broken yet .

Inference : Can not short at present

Obervations for 14 june

All low emas in TT are alinged in increasing order .
Also the 5 emas are in increasing order ...
Now we have to wait for high emas to be also in increasing order , so that we can say a top is formed .
all of them infact are in increasing order expect for the last hour hour high ema which is less than the previous value . Day Pivot being at 5120.hour high ema at 5134
5121 is 5 ema , and we have closed right at 5121 .5109 is Hour low ema now a close below this can be used as shorting opportunity .
and a close above 5134 , a buy .
presently SS in OB region
I see -ve divergence in hour charts with 14 RSI  , Fmacd and SS indicators .

we have a spinning top formation today eod , which is indecisive , after a bullish engulfing day before .

Contradicting observations

• We have a Bullish Engulfing yesterday eod . Expecting more upsides .
• Prices closing above High emas showing upward momentum .
• EW labeling tells me to expect a down wave now .

As I write this 123 strategy generated a BUY at 5123 .

11:20

Out of the position Sl hit at 5113

EOD 8th June 12

Trendline :

Today's high falls exactly at the trendline making it now 4 points touching the trendline seen , making it a strong one .
This trendline can act as strong resistance on monday .
On monday if we see prices breaking this trendline and trading above it then , this line will act as strong support . And if we open below this and stay below , then chances of price going down .


Moving Average:

We have just closed below WHema ( 5072) .
In Day/Hour TF it is trending phase as we have  closed above High ema s


Looking at EW will help . I will work on it .

Trade on 8th June '12

12:30  pm

First trade today morning .
My Mindset was If prices open above Pivot then I will sell on break of 5039 (p) . It broke the Pivot and After  waiting for first few minutes I saw weakness in prices so ..

Sold NF @ 4995 in the morning as
Reason 1 : prices broke first Reaction low of the day ( 5017).
Reason 2: developing Hour Low ema was at 5024 ( 9:45 AM) and price closed below that .
Showing weakness as such Hour TA was OB.


Closed the position ( 10:50 AM) with 15 points loss looking at the pattern developing which was making higher  high and higher low .
Also prices started closing above (developing 11:00 AM ) hour low ema .

unfortunately I closed my position and next second , prices start to drop.

EOD :

As I think what wrong move I made ...I think I closed my position right at Pivot point which was 5039 . I should have waited for prices to break Pivot and then close the position . Pivot acted as resistance and prices retraced from there .
Trailing the SL is very important as the market is unfolding , we saw what happened in the last hour today ..

1-2-3 Strategy / EOD 7th June '12

Let me start again after a long gap updating this blog with this 123 strategy I came
 across today . After reading it looked quite simple to follow so followed it in live market .

One can read about it at http://www.tradeprofitably.com/The_1-2-3_Breakout_Trading_System.html

this gave me clear 20 points today in a long position taken around 12:46 time and trailing the SL.

The black line after 2 shows the entry point at 5028 .
and then subsequent TSL.

EOD 7th June

Important Lvls for the Day 7th June EOD
Day TF	Values	Hour TF	Values
5Dema	4,964.3	5Hema	5038
5Hema	4,983	5HHema	5047
5Lema	4,910	5HLema	5028
Day Pivot	5039
21 hr MA	4960.7
34 Hr MA	5005.9
10Dema	4,942.3
Last Close	5050

 

Day and hour trend up  and we have closed above DHema as well HHema indicating upside momentum gaining strength .

5 Dema has crossed over 10 Dema indicating bullishness.
Also to watch is that 20 MA is approching 200 MA . It will result in Fast fall if 20 turns down soon ( chart below )

and  If 20 crosses over 200 then more upside.

EOD 4th April 2012

4th April 10:00 close

OLCH values in last row is at 10:15

At 10:00 close We close the long position taken at 5238 ,
reasons as per me :

The price closed at 5329

Hour high ema 5358
Hour Low ema 5339
5 Hour ema 5349
34 ma on 30 mins TF 5326

So we closed not only below hour  high ema but also hour low ema ...clearly on hourly TF down momentum is picking with a close below hour Lema .

If we take 2 lots and part book , then we will make good points in this trade .
and now all the position is closed ..so 2nd lot gives 90 points .

EOD 3rd April 2012