Intraday 21st March

ORB 5267- 5288
It was broken down .
At 10:00 prices closed below day Lema .
and prices closed below the 5hour close ema at 5273 ...
Took a sell position at 5265 with target = 5240 and sl= day high 5287
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Update at 11:45

prices made a high of 5288 for the day then receeded . I took a sell position with reasons mentioned ORB was broken down and also prices closed below 5 hr ema , ( though they were above the hour low ema ) .

Was holding the position as prices were making lower high , so first my SL was 5288 , then moved it to 5284 ...then prices again dropped from this lvl , so then moved it to 5282 .
And then you can see , my SL was hit .
Though nifty spot travelled 20 points from my entry , But I had to give away close to 30 points inNF.

All those who visit me here and feel that I  overlooked "something" , that I should have taken into consideration  pls point it out ..so that our learning can grow.
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So High low system tells me to Go long at 1:00 close at 5316 I will keep a stop loss of 20 Points at 5296 . With every hour close we will  move this SL .
At 2:00 close lets move our stop loss to breakeven so that it covers brokerage so at 5321.

Now to 5330.

EOD 20th march

Let me start with a day chart where various ema s are plotted ..

I had updated the nifty counts  on last friday  , you can find the link to page on the right side pannel .

Due to my other personal work , my writing here will be occasional , and not daily . More over summer vacations are here :-D ..what more can I say :))

Will continue after this gap .

Budget day ends !

Today I witnessed what volatility is ...in matter of seconds the prices were jumping 50+ points during the day .
I came out today with a small portion market had to offer me , in the morning itself . Then looking at volatility I acted in "my best interest " by not entering again :)
Looks like the 3rd is going on  will try to enter again , as this 3rd settles and 4th starts to up .

Its amazing to watch the Index move up and down in wild swings !! How people make money in tons and loss in tons . I want to be a turtle ...as long as I do not stop!!

Camarilla Lvls for 16th March

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Stock name	Nifty	16th March 2012
Open	5,462.50
High	5,462.50
Low	5,362.00
Close	5,380.50
HL5	5481.347	Immediate upside target after Break Out
HL4	5435.608	Break Out on the Upper Side
HL3	5408.054	Go Long above these
LL5	5279.653	Immediate lower target after Break Out
LL4	5325.392	Break Out on the Lower Side
LL3 -------------------------	5352.946	Go Short Below These ------------------------------------- Will Update these lvls as the day Opens

EOD 15th March

Candle Stick Pattern :

I feel Evening star Formed today. Bearish in nature .

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I have been keeping track of Hour high and low Ema's Intraday and see that if followed with Discipline the it works most of the time  ..Especially during the trending moves .
here is a snap shot of excel file ....

 

Camarilla Lvls for 15th March

We opened at 5467 ...Which is between H3 and L3

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Stock name	Nifty	15th March 2012
Open	5,491.00
High	5,499.00
Low	5,438.00
Close	5,463.00
HL5	5524.28	Immediate upside target after Break Out
HL4	5496.487	Break Out on the Upper Side
HL3	5479.743	Go Long above these
LL5	5401.72	Immediate lower target after Break Out
LL4	5429.513	Break Out on the Lower Side
LL3	5446.257	Go Short Below These

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Scenario 1: Open price is between H3 and L3
-
-
To enter long position (i.e. To Buy)o Wait for the price to go below L3 and then when it moves back above L3,
buy.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves below (L3+L4)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = H1, Target2 = H2, Target3 = H3
To enter short position (i.e. To Sell)o Wait for the price to go above H3 and then when it moves back below H3,sell
or go short.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves above (H4+H3)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = L1, Target2 = L2, Target3 = L3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now that we have gone below L3 which is at 5446 ...now we wait for the prices to move avove 5446  , if that happens we buy with SL= 5438 and T1=H1=5470 ;T2 =H2 5475 ; T3 = H3=5479.

EOD 14th March

2nd Day Camarilla Update

We kept out stop loss at 5463 , but squared off at 5457 ..based on EW . We did go to 5438 for the day and completed 5 waves there as wave 1=68 points .
1  5499-5470
2 5470-5485
3 5485-5440
4 5440-5457
5 5457-5438

and  breaking 5457 to upside was confirming an abc retracement of fall from 5499 .
Continunning with EWcounts ...
this is one possibility

a  5438-5470 ( as zigzag)
b 5470- 5446 ( extended flat)
c to up going on can do =a = 32 which comes to 5478 lvls , which is also close to  61.8 %(5476) of fall from 5499 to 5438 ...If this count is valid then one can sell there .
Invalidation : If we go below 5438 now without touching this 5476 lvls then this above count is invalidated .
Now if we go below 5438 then we have done abc at 5470 and are in 5 waves down as Wave 3 of this move from 5499 .
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Conclusion based on MA ,

5 Day ema is at 5389 and close above , will keep the trend up also to note is closing above day high ema at 5428 keep the momentum up as well .
 All in all Trend is UP hour wise , Day wise , Week wise and month wise .
no weakness in momentum .
The gap from 5430 to today opening at 5491 is also Not filled fully , we retraced to 5438 leaving 8 points .

Camarilla Update for 14th March

Stock name	Nifty	13th March 2012
Open	5,391.05
High	5,438.65
Low	5,391.05
Close	5,430.00
HL5	5477.944	Immediate upside target after Break Out	Immediate lower target after Break Out	LL5	5,382
HL4	5456.199	Break Out on the Upper Side	Break Out on the Lower Side	LL4	5,404
HL3	5443.099	Go Long above these	Go Short Below These	LL3	5,417

We open at 5491 which is above H4 (  even H5)

Scenario 4: Open price is above H4
-
-
To enter long position (i.e. To Buy)
o NA. Buying is not suggested in such scenarios.
To enter short position (i.e. To Sell)
o Wait for the price to go below H3. As soon as the price moves below H3, sell
or go short.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves above (H4+H3)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = L1, Target2 = L2, Target3 = L3.

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So we wait for the prices to go below 5443 and then short there .That is good 30 points below the current level 5473.
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Updated at 11:45
So prices break 5443 and our sell generates with a 20 points SL at 5463 .

EOD 13th March

We had Golden cross today where on day charts 50 ma cross over 200 ma .
Also on day charts , 5 ema crossed over 10 ema . Both these cross overs indicating bullishness .

If in the below hour chart , 20 ma crosses over 200 ma then more upside ...If now 20 ma starts to fall then a fast fall , we have seen in recent past that this combination of 20 and 200 has worked very well for fast fall . Tomorows price action will confirm this .

On day charts Fast macd crosses the zero line today ...indicating bullishness .

Missed the opportunity to enter longs when nifty dipped to 5327 yesterday .

 

Camarilla update

 Thats it for the day !