Camarilla Lvls for 15th March

We opened at 5467 ...Which is between H3 and L3

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Stock name	Nifty	15th March 2012
Open	5,491.00
High	5,499.00
Low	5,438.00
Close	5,463.00
HL5	5524.28	Immediate upside target after Break Out
HL4	5496.487	Break Out on the Upper Side
HL3	5479.743	Go Long above these
LL5	5401.72	Immediate lower target after Break Out
LL4	5429.513	Break Out on the Lower Side
LL3	5446.257	Go Short Below These

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Scenario 1: Open price is between H3 and L3
-
-
To enter long position (i.e. To Buy)o Wait for the price to go below L3 and then when it moves back above L3,
buy.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves below (L3+L4)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = H1, Target2 = H2, Target3 = H3
To enter short position (i.e. To Sell)o Wait for the price to go above H3 and then when it moves back below H3,sell
or go short.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves above (H4+H3)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = L1, Target2 = L2, Target3 = L3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now that we have gone below L3 which is at 5446 ...now we wait for the prices to move avove 5446  , if that happens we buy with SL= 5438 and T1=H1=5470 ;T2 =H2 5475 ; T3 = H3=5479.

EOD 14th March

2nd Day Camarilla Update

We kept out stop loss at 5463 , but squared off at 5457 ..based on EW . We did go to 5438 for the day and completed 5 waves there as wave 1=68 points .
1  5499-5470
2 5470-5485
3 5485-5440
4 5440-5457
5 5457-5438

and  breaking 5457 to upside was confirming an abc retracement of fall from 5499 .
Continunning with EWcounts ...
this is one possibility

a  5438-5470 ( as zigzag)
b 5470- 5446 ( extended flat)
c to up going on can do =a = 32 which comes to 5478 lvls , which is also close to  61.8 %(5476) of fall from 5499 to 5438 ...If this count is valid then one can sell there .
Invalidation : If we go below 5438 now without touching this 5476 lvls then this above count is invalidated .
Now if we go below 5438 then we have done abc at 5470 and are in 5 waves down as Wave 3 of this move from 5499 .
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Conclusion based on MA ,

5 Day ema is at 5389 and close above , will keep the trend up also to note is closing above day high ema at 5428 keep the momentum up as well .
 All in all Trend is UP hour wise , Day wise , Week wise and month wise .
no weakness in momentum .
The gap from 5430 to today opening at 5491 is also Not filled fully , we retraced to 5438 leaving 8 points .

Camarilla Update for 14th March

Stock name	Nifty	13th March 2012
Open	5,391.05
High	5,438.65
Low	5,391.05
Close	5,430.00
HL5	5477.944	Immediate upside target after Break Out	Immediate lower target after Break Out	LL5	5,382
HL4	5456.199	Break Out on the Upper Side	Break Out on the Lower Side	LL4	5,404
HL3	5443.099	Go Long above these	Go Short Below These	LL3	5,417

We open at 5491 which is above H4 (  even H5)

Scenario 4: Open price is above H4
-
-
To enter long position (i.e. To Buy)
o NA. Buying is not suggested in such scenarios.
To enter short position (i.e. To Sell)
o Wait for the price to go below H3. As soon as the price moves below H3, sell
or go short.
o Stoploss should be placed when price moves above (H4+H3)/2.
o Targets : Target1 = L1, Target2 = L2, Target3 = L3.

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So we wait for the prices to go below 5443 and then short there .That is good 30 points below the current level 5473.
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Updated at 11:45
So prices break 5443 and our sell generates with a 20 points SL at 5463 .

EOD 13th March

We had Golden cross today where on day charts 50 ma cross over 200 ma .
Also on day charts , 5 ema crossed over 10 ema . Both these cross overs indicating bullishness .

If in the below hour chart , 20 ma crosses over 200 ma then more upside ...If now 20 ma starts to fall then a fast fall , we have seen in recent past that this combination of 20 and 200 has worked very well for fast fall . Tomorows price action will confirm this .

On day charts Fast macd crosses the zero line today ...indicating bullishness .

Missed the opportunity to enter longs when nifty dipped to 5327 yesterday .

 

Camarilla update

 Thats it for the day !

Exploring Camarilla trading

13th March 2012

Intraday Trading Using Camarilla , so for next one month lets follow this method and see what are the gains . In my EOD updates I will also write the gains/Losses by this method .
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Stock name Nifty
Open 5420.1
High 5420.1
Low 5327.4
Close 5360



HL5  5453  LL5 5,267
HL4 5411 Break Out on the Upper Side             Break Out on the Lower Side LL4 5,309
HL3 5385 Go Long above these                         Go Short Below These LL3 5,335
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We opened at 5391  between H4 and H3 ...so we go long on breakout of H4 which is 5411 , and keep SL at H4+H3/2 = 5398  .

Update on Camarilla Trade ..

EOD 12th march

5316 5 day ema ...Prices closed 5360 again above 5 day ema and thus day trend is up . 5 day high ema coincidently hour high ema as well at 5368 and close below this suggests weakness in prices to close ema and low ema .

Today we closed above 5 week ema at 5352 ...making the week trend up  for  now but again closed below the week high ema so its not confirmed that week trend is up.

5369 is pivot for tuesday.
Since markets are volatile , ORB along with Pivot lvls can be used to trade Intraday . For last 2 days ORB is guiding well about the direction of trade for the day.

Intraday 12th March 2012

Squared off the long positions .

                                         Open       High        Low         Close       5Ema       10Ema     HH          HL

03-12-2012 10:00	5,420	5,420	5,361	5,374	5,339	5,315	5,359	5,326
03-12-2012 11:00	5,373	5,377	5,352	5,364	5,347	5,324	5,365	5,335
03-12-2012 12:00	5,364	5,379	5,344	5,344	5,348	5,329	5,370	5,338

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At 11:00 close 5364 we closed below the Hour high ema.
showing weakness .
5344 (Close at 11:30) at 12:00 is developing presently.

Momentum

If we can study Elliott wave along with Momentum , it will help us identify the begining and ending of waves .

How to Gauge momentum ?  .

A very simple way to gauge momentum is to watch the price action against moving average .

Short term   moving average of period 5 / 10 /  20 .
Medium term Moving average of period 25 / 50 / 100 .
Long term Moving average of period more than 100 / 200 .

If prices are trading above , then strength and if they are trading below then weakness for that respective timeframe.

One can chose hour , day , week or month TimeFrame.

When 5 period ma is above 10 , which is above  20 , then there is strength in the upward direction and vise versa .

In other words whenever short term moving averages are above the long term moving averages the momentum is UP and vise versa .


Presently Hour chart shows the various moving averages as

Prices have closed above 5 20 and 50 period moving average ...indicating ST strength UP . Also see ,  5 period and 50 period moving average are almost at the same level . Now a crossover will be bullish and if 5 period ma starts to fall , it will result in Fast fall .

Day TF moving averages are presently as

 

5 period ma touched the 34 period ma and moved up . If this continues then a fast rise in day TF .

EOD 9th March 2012

We closed at 5334.

Lets look at some important lvls  ,

5323   5Hour ema
5329   Hour Hema
5258   Day Lema
5294   5 Dema
5342   DHema
5348   5Wema
5323   Monday Pivot.
5326  10 Dema
5329  21 Dema
5277  34 Ema

So we closed above most of these important lvls , except the DHema ( 5342) and 5Wema ( 5348) this is keeping the weekly trend still Down , But with todays close the Hour and Day trend are UP.

Moving Average:

If one takes position with hourly close then 10:00 close gave a buy signal today at 5313 in the morning with a close above hour high ema , but then it was a good Gap up as well ...so took support of  ORB as well. This also gave a buy signal as it broke it to upper range.

Divergence :

Take a look at the chart below ....

Starting 9th March

We are opening at 5294 gap up from 5220 .

The JNSAR is at 5344 .
We have opened above R2 for the day at 5282 ...Also opening is at 34 hr sma , if we trade above this lvl then bias for day is up .

I feel today ORB will be a good guide  .
 Aggresive Trade will be to go long now at 5303 ..with R2 as Stop loss.