Lvls to watch on 25th Jan

Price zones / levels that need to be closely watched ...

Monthly trend is Down .
Weekly trend is Up .
Daily Trend Up
Hourly Trend UP.

Hour close Ema @ 5119. As long as prices close above this hour trend will remain up .

Indicators suggest OB for some time now . Also -ve divergence all over the hour charts ...correction will come soon I feel but when ?

For now weakness if prices close below Hour close Ema with some volumes that is 5119.
The Hour low Ema @ 5104 .
Day TF says

Day close Ema @ 5044 , DHema @ 5058 and DLema @ 4995.
Now if we keep a filter of 15 points to HLema in Hour TF then it comes to 5089.
Monthly Pivot 4792
Week Pivot 4980
Day Pivot 5106.
Shorting opportunity once prices close below 5089.
Some Charts :

Prices are trading at the channel resistance ...

23rd Jan 2012

Here are some numbers one should keep a watch on ...

Hour Time Frame

5053  HHema
5041  HCema
5018  HLema .

Developing Day Time Frame lvls

HHema   4995
DCema   4980
DLema   4941

Prices closing below the HHema

For past 2 hours prices are closing below the hHema and Hour close ema
.I feel that we are finally in the 4th wave down(bullish) Or the 3rd wave down (bearish).

20 Jan Observation

Significant -ev divergence in hour charts ...Prices to fall but when ?

My understanding says ,

Presently wait for prices to close below first the Orange Trendline and then the Pink trendline for indication that 'c' is over in 5 waves . If and when prices close below the Dema then  Hhema , weekness will be there ..Untill then wait and watch.

Update on Longs

SL for the buy done at 4942 is 4964 presently developing HHema. This is to save the capital .

17th Jan Observation .

Prices resisting  at 4950-4960 lvls.
Momemtum seems to be missing .
We are closing above HHema since 10:00 today morning though .

A good -ve divergence is seen in 14RSI hourly charts.

35D stochstic in 'OB" region and Prices trading at channel top

Prices should fall anytime now , I think.
EW perspective we have done the 5th also ...

I am presently Long since 10:00 today morning as prices closed above HHema and still maintaing that ..today's open = Low .
but still feel prices will drop soon .

16th Jan .

Did not get a chance to enter today .....with the very simple system of Moving Average bands .

Lets see what happens tomorow .

==============================================================
A very simple plan for today is ,
As prices close below the Hour low ema at 4848 ...I will short , with SL as close above hour high ema .

I feel weekness in the prices ...Also 5 waves were done at 4899 ..I think 2nd wave of 5 waves down was over and now we are in 3rd wave down .

12 Jan : 12:00 Close .

At 12 close :

Hour Closing at 12 @ 4812 and HLema @ 4824 .
So a sell generated . With SL = Close above HHema 4855.

4838 is the high made in the previous hour . A Close above it ..I will be cautious.

Fast Macd has crossed below the zero line for now ..Ss cut the 80 mark downwards.

Will Nifty go down from here ?

Today nifty did a high of 4877.. Huge Volumes seen.

Candle Stick Pattern
Doji with good volumes:
(Stockcharts.com)After a long white candle a doji signifies that buying pressure is diminished.
After an advance or long white candlestick, a doji signals that buying pressure may be diminishing and the uptrend could be nearing an end. Whereas a security can decline simply from a lack of buyers, continued buying pressure is required to sustain an uptrend. Therefore, a doji may be more significant after an uptrend or long white candlestick. Even after the doji forms, further downside is required for bearish confirmation. This may come as a gap down, long black candlestick, or decline below the long white candlestick's open. After a long white candlestick and doji, traders should be on the alert for a potential evening doji star.

Golden Ratio 61.8% retracement of fall from 5099-4531 comes to 4882( the channel top )  . Prices just fell short of it by 5 points .

From golden ratio will nifty now fall ?
Are we in 'C' down in 5 waves? Of which 1 and 2 done now 3 to start....After a huge white candle there comes a doji showing confusion . If we get a Good size black candle tomorow then we are probably going down  . Evening star doji.
if not then we are already in the long trade since 4796.

MAs
todays Close 4861

Hour 5 ema - 4861
HHema  4869
HLema   4848
 The very simple 5 hour HLC system , is presently in long . As prices close below the HLema the position will be closed and a sell will generate.

Also I am keeping an eye on 50 and 200 sma , If 50 crosses 200 then more upside and also if this happens there will be channel breakout that nifty is trading in   .
If not and 50 starts to fall from here then a fast fall in the making .

Indicators:

9Hour Rsi below the signal line and right at 80 mark.
Slow macd poised right at signal line , one has to see if it crosses it down or gives a fast rise .



Channels :

Prices trading at channel top(Blue) . Likely that prices see a correction from here ...
Red trendline is already broken upside , we will get to know if this a false breakout.

I feel prices will go down from here ...We will get to know that tomorow.

11Jan 10:00 Close

Update at 12:00
HLema 4846
HHema 4862
Trailing sL=close below 4846
Fast Fall set up emerging ...with 20 and 200 sma keep an eye on it/

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Update at 11:00
HLema 4834
HHema 4854
Trailing sL=close below 4834.
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The trade taken yesterday at 4798 , is still on . Presently Hour 5 low ema at 4827 . So till prices close below this and then subsequent lvl at 11:00 close ,the trade is on . HH ema at 4847 , in the first hour prices took support here.

80+ points so far in this trade.

Hour rsi is OB ...
I am keeping a watch on 20 and 200 sma , if they cross then bullish , If 20 starts to fall then a fast fall.