Update on Longs

SL for the buy done at 4942 is 4964 presently developing HHema. This is to save the capital .

17th Jan Observation .

Prices resisting  at 4950-4960 lvls.
Momemtum seems to be missing .
We are closing above HHema since 10:00 today morning though .

A good -ve divergence is seen in 14RSI hourly charts.

35D stochstic in 'OB" region and Prices trading at channel top

Prices should fall anytime now , I think.
EW perspective we have done the 5th also ...

I am presently Long since 10:00 today morning as prices closed above HHema and still maintaing that ..today's open = Low .
but still feel prices will drop soon .

16th Jan .

Did not get a chance to enter today .....with the very simple system of Moving Average bands .

Lets see what happens tomorow .

==============================================================
A very simple plan for today is ,
As prices close below the Hour low ema at 4848 ...I will short , with SL as close above hour high ema .

I feel weekness in the prices ...Also 5 waves were done at 4899 ..I think 2nd wave of 5 waves down was over and now we are in 3rd wave down .

12 Jan : 12:00 Close .

At 12 close :

Hour Closing at 12 @ 4812 and HLema @ 4824 .
So a sell generated . With SL = Close above HHema 4855.

4838 is the high made in the previous hour . A Close above it ..I will be cautious.

Fast Macd has crossed below the zero line for now ..Ss cut the 80 mark downwards.

Will Nifty go down from here ?

Today nifty did a high of 4877.. Huge Volumes seen.

Candle Stick Pattern
Doji with good volumes:
(Stockcharts.com)After a long white candle a doji signifies that buying pressure is diminished.
After an advance or long white candlestick, a doji signals that buying pressure may be diminishing and the uptrend could be nearing an end. Whereas a security can decline simply from a lack of buyers, continued buying pressure is required to sustain an uptrend. Therefore, a doji may be more significant after an uptrend or long white candlestick. Even after the doji forms, further downside is required for bearish confirmation. This may come as a gap down, long black candlestick, or decline below the long white candlestick's open. After a long white candlestick and doji, traders should be on the alert for a potential evening doji star.

Golden Ratio 61.8% retracement of fall from 5099-4531 comes to 4882( the channel top )  . Prices just fell short of it by 5 points .

From golden ratio will nifty now fall ?
Are we in 'C' down in 5 waves? Of which 1 and 2 done now 3 to start....After a huge white candle there comes a doji showing confusion . If we get a Good size black candle tomorow then we are probably going down  . Evening star doji.
if not then we are already in the long trade since 4796.

MAs
todays Close 4861

Hour 5 ema - 4861
HHema  4869
HLema   4848
 The very simple 5 hour HLC system , is presently in long . As prices close below the HLema the position will be closed and a sell will generate.

Also I am keeping an eye on 50 and 200 sma , If 50 crosses 200 then more upside and also if this happens there will be channel breakout that nifty is trading in   .
If not and 50 starts to fall from here then a fast fall in the making .

Indicators:

9Hour Rsi below the signal line and right at 80 mark.
Slow macd poised right at signal line , one has to see if it crosses it down or gives a fast rise .



Channels :

Prices trading at channel top(Blue) . Likely that prices see a correction from here ...
Red trendline is already broken upside , we will get to know if this a false breakout.

I feel prices will go down from here ...We will get to know that tomorow.

11Jan 10:00 Close

Update at 12:00
HLema 4846
HHema 4862
Trailing sL=close below 4846
Fast Fall set up emerging ...with 20 and 200 sma keep an eye on it/

----------------------------------------------------------
Update at 11:00
HLema 4834
HHema 4854
Trailing sL=close below 4834.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The trade taken yesterday at 4798 , is still on . Presently Hour 5 low ema at 4827 . So till prices close below this and then subsequent lvl at 11:00 close ,the trade is on . HH ema at 4847 , in the first hour prices took support here.

80+ points so far in this trade.

Hour rsi is OB ...
I am keeping a watch on 20 and 200 sma , if they cross then bullish , If 20 starts to fall then a fast fall.

10Jan 10:00 Close

Prices closed at 4798 .

Lets see the important lvls .
Hour High ema 4767
Day 5 Ema 4758
D high Ema 4779

The very simple system which says to buy as prices close above hour high ema generates a buy at 10 :00 close now.

So buy at 4798 SL= day low for now then it moves to close below hour low ema .

9 th Jan . 10:00 close

AT 10:00 close at 4708 , it seems , lot of weekness .

Prices trading below Week Pivot (4712), Day Pivot(4745).
Hour 5 ema (4726) . Hour Low ema at 4709 .

Prices have closed below all important nos.
4692 is the day low ema , where it seems to have taken support at 10 close .
A "SELL" if 4692 is broken .

EOD 6th Jan

Stop loss for all shorts would have triggered today ..mine as well
In no trade right now ...
Time Frame

1. Hour time frame trend is up
2. Day time frame trend is up .
3. Week time frame , trend turned up today with close(4754) above week 5 ema (4748).

Channel :

There is a channel resistance at 4830-4840 zone.

Prices

Prices did close above Hour high ema but just by one point . Monday 10:00 close will give more clear direction if at all it is up...
If it closes down then I will wait on sidelines for a good set up to emerge.
4769 is the day high ema ..if prices close above this lvl and maintained for monday then "buy' will generate for me.

6th Jan 10:00 hour Close

AT 10:00 Close ..it looks like going down looking at High and low emas with respect to close prices ...in hour and day time frame.

Yesterday's Sell generated at 4740( as prices closed below Hour low ema) is also in profit .


Closed below 4741 (5 close hour ema)
Closed below 4722 ( 5 Close Day ema)