Jan 05 Obsevation

From 12:00 o'clock close the prices are closing above 5 Close ema , but have closed below 5 Hour Hema.
4770-4780 acting as stiff resistance .
50 100 and 200 sma s are not changing fo past 2-3 hours just the 5 and 20 sma are going down.

Is there a fall coming to support zone ?

Gap up Opening

With todays gap up opening , the channel is broken upside in which nifty was trading for last few days .

We did a buy at 4630 lvls yesterday , we will carry this position till the prices close below the Hour low ema or day low ema ...
At 11:30 the Hour low ema is 4679 so that is the stop loss for now the long position taken yesterday .
which gives at least 50 points .

EOD Jan 02 2012

Time Frame :
 Looking at hourly moving averages , Nifty closed above HHema at 4637 .Making hourly trend to reverse presently . One has keep a watch if this spreads to day frame.
Nifty did close above DLema (4629) If it closes above day 5 ema (4659) , ST reversal will be confirmed and will gain momentum if closes above DHema (4700) .
Nifty gave a aggresive buy signal today at 4630 lvls by closing above Hour 5 ema ( 4624) and then above Hour high ema ( 4633).To be safe , it has to close above day 5 ema for a buy.

50 hour sma has crossed 100 hr sma
Sir says
"In downtrend it is close above DLema suggesting a correction , and normally it extends 10-20 points above DHema."
Fib Retracements for the fall from 4801 to 4588 are
4638 23.6%
4669  .38%
4695  .50%
4720 .618%
4745  .736 .

Indicators :
On hourly charts stochastic is OS , Also in daily charts ss is OS. look for + ve divergence in hourly charts , if present then good time to go long.

Slow macd has just triggered signal line near 0 .
fast macd about to cross the zero line to up , ( it may turn down as well , if it does then it will be zero line reversal bearish ) other wise zero line crossover  bullish.

Channels:

Prices closed at the upper trendline of the channel nifty is trading in .watch out for a breakout with volumes .


I feel like a " buy " generated today at the close of the hour around4630 lvls .
Ideal SL= 4588 and Target 4700-4720 .
and then depending upon the momentum that time we can decide further.

Dec 30 10:00 am

Today 's price movements tell me to buy ...
Reasons
1) ORB( 4657-4677) broken upside .
2) Prices have moved above HL ema ( 4662) DLema(4671) and WLema (4672) .
3) Prices above Pivot(4662).
4) Indicators in OS region . so a bounce is possible.
So Buying at 4676 with SL= days's low 4657.

Breakout of channel nifty is trading in , Sar to go long hit will further confirm the direction

27th dec 3:00 pm

At 1 pm close , prices did close (4754)below the hour low ema (4763) and thus selling .

prices did go to 4723 low so 30 points gain till now Look at this set up of sma(s) and notice how  20 sma and 100 sma are now touching , if from this point if nifty falls making 20 sma fall( which was rising from last few days now) then this will be fast fall setup .

Another sell generated at 3:00 pm close when the 20 MA chart gave a sell signal to me .Prices move and close below the hour low ema . ( red line crosses the yellow line). 

I see Weekness

11:45 am
Prices have moved below Hour High ema at 4788 at 12 'oclock close let us see if it closses below this lvl .
Next is Dhema @ 4770 and then HLema @ 4766 developing is around 4769.
14 Rsi , Fast macd showing -ve divergence most of indicators at OB zone.

I will "SELL" if prices close below the hour low ema .

EOD 22 Dec.2011

Prices :

MHema	5321
	WHema	4941
		DHema	4726
			HHema	4712
			HLema	4675
		DLema	4619
	WLema	4689
MLema	4732

I see that All the high ema s are lined up in decending order . Low ema are all shuffled up .

As Hour Low ema has moved above the Day low ema I see that Hour trend is UP and its very close to being more that Week low ema . As that happens weekly the trend will be UP . The direction is UP.
 Monthly and weekly low emas are lined up alright .
For now I can say if the Green box continues to go above purple and blue the trend will be UP.
I will follow this everyday to see if I can derive something out of it .

Moving average Band

Above chart is 20 hour high and low band plotted n hourly chart with 5 and 10 MAs .

A buy signal is generated, As we can see here the signal line ( Red ) crossed the lower band(yellow) at about 4590 lvl and also at the same lvl  5 ma crossed 10 ma (Green) . 

At present is confortably placed well above 10 ma as a trailing stop loss we can keep a watch when 5 ma again crosses the 10 ma.Nifty has already travelled ~130 points after the signal was generated .

Trendline / Channels

The Slow macd has crossed the 0 line and moved up , indicating prices to go up .
Prices have broken the channel as well and now trading outside it.
There is +ve Divergence as well present in the chart .

Update at 2:30

Morning trade the stop loss was hit at 4594 and no profit no loss "capital preserved".

4555 an important support now , If we go below 4555 then we will be in iii rd wave of 'C' down .
ii look like a flat so it will get over around 4620 lvls .

20-Dec-2011

Update 12:15 All the short term MAs have converged at 4597 ...so keeping the SL at 4594 now to preserve the capital .

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WHema	4901
	DHema	4768
WLema	4697
	DLema	4659
		HHema	4619
		HLema	4585

Buying at Hlow ema for 1st target hhigh ema then dlema ( For Intraday Only) As Day wise the Trend is down till prices close above DLema .

Date	Position	Size	Entry	Sl	1st Lot exit	2nd Lot Exit	Exit	P/L
20-Dec-11	Buy	50	4590	4580

19th Dec

The Fast Fall did materialise today morning and Nifty fell to 4556 .

I see +ve divergence in 9 Rsi  chart (above) but this divergence is there for last 3-4 days .
There is a bounce coming soon ..when ?

As the 5 sma moves above 10 sma as seen in the chart , it has made me come out of my short position  .

As far as Moving average channel is considered , I will wait for the red signal line here to cross over the yellow line for a buy signal.

I will wait for a good set up before taking any other positions .

Hour high ema at 4618 presently ,

As prices above hour low ema at 4576 they indicated a buy and as prices close above Hour high ema at 4618 then it will be buy and hold .

Price currently  very close to day high at 4623 if they close above 4600 , it will give a very small body with gap down on day chart .

and If we open Gap up tomorow , then Morning star may be in the making .

Day low ema at 4659 , prices crossing this lvl and closing above it  will generate a "buy" signal for me .

Prices moving below 4575 and closing , generate a "sell" for me.

Elliott Wave.

Long term chart                                                           Weekly Nifty chart .

There are 2 possibilities presently . We are in wave C to down in 5 waves out of which i , ii done ii going on iv and v to follow  .

Let me put it here again

A- 5400-4639 =761

    B- 4639-5099 = 460

    C is on (Down) in 5 waves , Expectation = A = 761 which comes to 4338 !!!!!!

           1   5099-4728 =371

           2   was a irregular flat , whose wave c could not do the expected that is above wave b so effects could be very implusive wave 3 ...I guess which we saw today.
      so 2 = 90
             a-4728-4839
             b-4839-4673
             c-4673-4818 ( fell short of expectation which was above 4839 atleast)
Now 3 going on in 5 waves min target = 1 = 371 which comes to 4447
 we touched 4556 (19 dec)

The other possibility ( In RED) is that we are almost finishing b.B and will start c.B soon ( This B is a irregular flat where in b.B went below the start of a.b) so possibilities of c.B touching lvls higher than high of b.B ( 5099).